Market increases but liquidity remains low
In general, in April 2026, VN-Index increased by nearly 180 points (+10.72%), from about 1,675 to over 1,854 points, mainly thanks to the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM). However, average liquidity decreased by 20% compared to March, to more than 24,300 billion VND.
According to experts, the market has great momentum but the results are not as expected, except for the Vingroup group. The current period is mainly absorbing information from the Q1 report and the AGM season, leading to a paradox: The index increases but many investors do not have corresponding profits.
The biggest risk is that cash flow will concentrate in a group of stocks. If Vingroup stagnates while other groups have not had time to lead, VN-Index may face short-term adjustment pressure. In addition, margin debt at a record high level also creates additional pressure on the market.
Existing adjustment pressure
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy (Kafi Securities) said that liquidity is narrowing, and cash flow is withdrawing from speculative groups to focus on pillar stocks. The market has also entered a "information trough" after the financial reporting season, lacking new growth stories, causing the motivation for cash flow circulation between industry groups to weaken.
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy said that in May, the market is likely to move sideways and accumulate in a narrow range in the high price zone. VN-Index may remain stable thanks to the bluechip group, but the personal portfolio is easily under pressure if it continues to focus on mid-cap and small-cap stocks - where profit-taking pressure and cash withdrawal are still clear.
Analysts from Nhat Viet Securities Company (VFS) offer 2 market scenarios in May. The first scenario is that VN-Index surpasses the resistance zone of 1,877 and continues the upward trend, but with weak liquidity, pillar stocks will still be the leading group. In the second scenario, the VN-Index is forecast to retest the 1,800 or deeper zone if the geopolitical conflict situation shows no signs of cooling down.
VFS recommends maintaining a stock ratio of 60-70%, cautious with stocks that have increased sharply and "May Sold" pressure after the Q1/2026 reporting season. At the same time, it is necessary to monitor exchange rates and Middle East tensions - factors that can increase inflation risk.
From another perspective, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DG Capital - commented: "May will be the period to test the durability of cash flow. If liquidity is maintained well and cash flow spreads to other industry groups, the "Sell in May" risk will not be worrying. Because the general level of the current market is not too high (except for some pillar stocks), this effect is unlikely to cause the market to fall too deeply.
Answering the question of which stock group will be the destination to attract cash flow in the near future, Mr. Nguyen Duc Khang - Head of Pinetree Securities Analysis Department - said that cash flow after the holidays is likely not to spread out but will enter the "sand-finding gold" game.
The pillar stock group, especially bluechips, may need to "rest" after a period of strong increase when the price level is already high and short-term room is narrowing. This group is likely to move sideways, accumulate instead of continuing to lead the index.
Meanwhile, cash flow may shift to small-cap stocks, especially the non-financial group. Q1/2026 results show that manufacturing, exporting, and service enterprises have more outstanding profit growth than the financial group.
In the context that system liquidity is not really abundant, the mid-cap group with separate stories will be a more ideal destination. This is where cash flow can find better performance than continuing to follow strongly increased pillar stocks" - Mr. Khang assessed.
