The stock market entered the first trading session of the new week on April 6 with the VN-Index reversing and slightly recovering right from the opening. However, selling pressure suddenly increased sharply afterwards when most industry groups reversed and adjusted. In which, oil and gas and energy stocks were under the greatest pressure. Supporting the market before strong selling came from the green color of bluechip stocks such as VIC, VCB, VNM, HPG.
Closing the session on April 6, VN-Index decreased by 9.05 points, down to 1,675 points. On HOSE, there were 238 declining stocks, 76 increasing stocks and 55 unchanged stocks. Market liquidity decreased very low when on HOSE, only 665.5 million shares were successfully transferred, equivalent to a trading value of 17,821 billion VND.
Contrary to the reaction of domestic investors, in today's session, foreign investors only net sold with a value of about 118 billion VND on HOSE.
Yuanta Securities Company believes that the stock market cannot be viewed completely positively. The story of FTSE's upgrade is mainly for short-term psychological support, while the risk of VN-Index losing the 1,600 point mark is still present.
Exchange rate pressure and the fact that US government bond yields are maintained at a high level continue to reduce the attractiveness of risky assets in emerging markets. If important support zones are breached in the context of weak liquidity, the market may enter a deeper correction phase to find a new balance point.
The analysis team of Pintree Securities Company expressed the view that the technical recovery of VN-Index is likely to have ended last week, and the market may face more challenges next week. Geopolitical risks continue to be an unpredictable variable, especially after the US President's announcement of the possibility of increasing military actions against Iran, making the risk of escalating tensions still present in the short term.
In a negative scenario, if these risks increase, VN-Index may return to test the bottom zone formed on March 24 around the 1,591 point mark. Notably, market developments are still mainly dominated by global macroeconomic factors, while internal issues such as liquidity, interest rates or energy security have not been fully reflected in the price.
Experts assess that the domestic market still has certain supporting factors. The policy cycle that promotes growth, the promotion of public investment and the ability to maintain supportive monetary orientation are expected to create a foundation for the market in the medium term if effectively implemented.
Notably, the market upgrade factor may create technical shifts in capital flows. In addition, interest rate differences and global capital flow trends continue to play a dominant role. When USD interest rates remain high, capital flows tend to return to assets in the US.
However, in the context of increased interest rate reduction expectations, while the domestic interest rate level is more stable, this correlation is gradually shifting in a more favorable direction for emerging and frontier markets.
In that context, investors are recommended to limit opening new buy positions in the short term, maintain a high cash ratio and prioritize observation. Disbursement should be carefully considered, focusing on stocks with good fundamentals and positive prospects this year when the market shows clearer signals.
