The stock market closed the first trading week of April with strong fluctuations, as continuous recovery waves were "broken" by profit-taking pressure and cautious sentiment in the face of a series of global macroeconomic variables.
VN-Index, although having a positive breakthrough at one point, quickly turned down in the last sessions of the week, reflecting the instability of cash flow as well as the increasingly clear differentiation between stock groups.
Cash flow spread widely, but still led by Vingroup, real estate and banking. The index maintained the support zone of 1,680 points for most of the time. At the end of the week, VN-Index increased by 11.24 points (+0.67%) compared to the previous week and closed at 1,684.04 points.
Foreign investors again became a minus point when net selling for most of the past week, with a total value of thousands of billions of VND. Accumulated after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold VND 1,025 billion across the market. The focus of last week's trading was Vin's stock, in which VPL code alone was net bought by foreign investors by nearly VND 4,000 billion.
Experts believe that the market is facing a sensitive threshold. While some viewpoints believe that the technical recovery has gradually ended and the risk of correction may return, another perspective assesses that the market is in the process of accumulation with the expectation of gradual improvement as supporting factors become clearer. In a negative scenario, if these risks increase, VN-Index may return to test the bottom zone formed on March 24 around the 1,591 point mark. Notably, market developments are still mainly dominated by global macroeconomic factors, while internal issues such as liquidity, interest rates or energy security have not been fully reflected in prices. The focus of the market next week is FTSE Russell's announcement of market upgrade rating results on April 7. This is considered one of the events that can significantly impact foreign capital flow expectations in the medium and long term.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DG Capital - commented that in the context of reduced liquidity and cautious sentiment, institutional cash flow is still quietly accumulating stocks in attractive price ranges. Along with the expectation of market upgrades, this may be the foundation for a new disbursement cycle, but requires investors to correctly identify signals and adhere to discipline.
In the context of risk factors still existing, experts believe that investors prioritizing capital preservation and maintaining a high proportion of cash is a normal development.
In the coming time, the focus of expert monitoring is placed on the inflation diễn biến in the US and the orientation of the FED's interest rate policy. These factors will directly affect the global interest rate level, domestic exchange rate pressure as well as the room for monetary policy management. In case the FED maintains a cautious view or delays interest rate cuts, pressure on the exchange rate and cash flow may increase.
In the opposite direction, the domestic market still has certain supporting factors.
It is expected that on the morning of April 8, the Vietnamese stock market will receive important information when FTSE announces the mid-term review results. This is considered a key step in the market upgrade roadmap. If it passes this review, the market may start attracting capital flows from passive funds right from September 2026.
In the latest report, analysts from SSI Securities Joint Stock Company said that with the reforms being implemented, Vietnam has now met 17/18 of MSCI's criteria. The final barrier is foreign exchange (FX) market liberalization being considered, although experience from countries like India or Indonesia shows that this is not an absolute barrier to upgrade.
SSI estimates that if upgraded to emerging markets, Vietnam could attract about 1.67 billion USD from ETF funds. This capital flow will be disbursed according to a roadmap, divided into 3-5 phases, helping the market absorb stably and limit fluctuations.
