VN-Index closed the last trading week before the Binh Ngo Lunar New Year holiday with positive developments.
The market structure is currently assessed as quite solid, as large cash flows circulate flexibly between large state-owned enterprises, creating a positive spillover effect and helping to limit the risk of deep decline due to the impact of a few individual stock groups. Notably, cash flow is continuing to expand to stock groups that have been "forgotten" for a long time such as industrial parks, textiles, seafood...
Foreign investors in the week before Tet returned to net buying with a value of more than 2,500 billion VND after a long net selling streak.
Historic statistics show a rather optimistic view of market performance after Tet. In particular, if compared with the results of the previous year, it can be seen that post-Tet movement partly reflects the "profit buffer" that investors have accumulated, thereby creating a psychology of cash flow ready to accompany and seek new opportunities. This profit buffer acts as a psychological shock reduction mechanism, helping investors patiently hold stocks through the long holiday instead of panicking and selling off in the face of short-term fluctuations.
Regarding the prospects after the Tet holiday, experts from DSC Securities Company expect the market to maintain a positive state in the first sessions of the new year, with the global macroeconomic environment not experiencing unexpected adverse fluctuations. VN-Index may continue to move towards the peak of 1,900 points, but the possibility of surpassing the historical peak is not yet highly appreciated, in the context that most stock groups, especially the leading bluechips group, have not yet formed technical patterns that are reliable enough for a clear breakthrough.
Assessing the market conditions this year, experts from Kafi Securities Company believe that three factors are supporting the positive trend: the performance last year reached over 40%; the policy context is being strongly managed, creating many promising investment opportunities; and the liquidity momentum in January continues to expand, showing that cash flow is still in a state of "waiting" for opportunities.
Kafi experts said that, according to statistics, the possibility of losses after Tet is quite low and has hardly ever appeared after a year of strong growth before, so there is a basis to expect positive prospects in the post-Tet period and further in the first quarter of 2026.
With the spreading market breadth, experts assess that any short-term correction is more "rugged" in terms of technical factors and trading sentiment than a large change in market trends.
The major current barrier to the stock market, according to experts, comes from monetary policy and higher interest rates. When savings interest rates increase, the relative attractiveness of the stock channel will decrease.
With the current context, the probability of an increase after Tet is assessed at a relatively positive level, but it is difficult to expect a wave spreading strongly in the style of cheap money like previous periods, when the general level of interest rates has been higher, capital costs are no longer low and cash flow has become more selective.
If there is a wave, it is likely that it will be a differentiated wave, focusing on the group of businesses with a clear profit growth story instead of increasing simultaneously according to the index. Therefore, the important thing is not to predict whether the market will have a wave or not, but to prepare a portfolio structure that is flexible enough to take advantage of opportunities when the probability leans towards positive.
