VN-Index closed the last trading week before the Binh Ngo Lunar New Year holiday with positive developments. Despite being under adjustment pressure in the first sessions of the week, demand improved significantly and spread towards the end of the week, helping the market recover significantly.
The pillar stock group including banking, securities, real estate and steel, after retreating to important support zones, all recorded a rebound, thereby supporting the general index. In the opposite direction, the midcap group - which had increased sharply in the previous period - began to cool down and entered a correction phase.
This development reflects the reasonable circulation of cash flow, showing that cash flow is still present in the market but is circulating between industry groups.
Foreign investors in the week returned to net buying with a value of more than 2,500 billion VND after a long net selling streak. However, it should be noted that most of the net buying value came from MBB shares alone with a scale of more than 2,600 billion VND, thereby showing that the trading trend of foreign investors is generally still quite cautious.
Regarding the prospects after the Tet holiday, experts from DSC Securities Company expect the market to maintain a positive state in the first sessions of the new year, with the global macroeconomic environment not experiencing unexpected adverse fluctuations. VN-Index may continue to move towards the peak of 1,900 points, but the possibility of surpassing the historical peak is not yet highly appreciated, in the context that most stock groups, especially the leading bluechips group, have not yet formed technical patterns that are reliable enough for a clear breakthrough.
Kafi Securities Company put forward the view that the market closed the last trading week before the holiday with a favorable technical recovery state, regaining the important milestones of 1,800 points and MA20, thereby minimizing the risk of deep correction after the holiday, in the scenario that external factors do not fluctuate too negatively. However, the recovery momentum is differentiated, causing the trading week to return from February 23 to likely struggle when VN-Index heads up to test the 1,850 point zone.
Liquidity has not yet returned to the trend confirmation level, so it is necessary to monitor more news developments during the holidays and market reactions after Tet to assess the durability of the recovery momentum. In the short term, the near resistance zone at 1,850 - 1,860 points, while MA50 around 1,790 points will be an important support zone to re-evaluate supply and demand when the market adjusts.
Looking at the stock market in 2026, experts believe that the Vietnamese stock market will grow not only in scale but also in quality, thereby strengthening the foundation for a more sustainable growth momentum.
FTSE's announcement of upgrading the Vietnamese market, along with strong reforms in trading infrastructure and operating mechanisms, will help the market move closer to the standards of developed markets in the region.
These factors both strengthen the confidence of existing investors and attract more foreign institutional investors and new capital flows, creating a foundation for long-term development.
In addition, the foundation for domestic economic growth continues to be strengthened, along with the positive profit prospects of listed companies will support the market to maintain its upward momentum in 2026. However, cash flow is likely to be more selective in the context of risks related to liquidity and increased interest rates, making industry groups sensitive to less attractive interest rates.
In the context of forecast differentiated growth, cash flow will focus more on industry groups and investment topics with good fundamentals, benefiting from economic reforms, and the expansion cycle of public investment.
In addition, the theme "upgrading the market" will be the pivot throughout 2026, with a focus on large-cap, high-liquidity stocks and room for foreign investors.
