The stock market needs a break to "get strength" to surpass the peak of 1,900 points

The stock market is entering a trough of information in May.The VN-Index is rising with the support of a few large-cap stocks, causing many investors' portfolios to mostly suffer losses and out-of-pocket cash flow is creating divergence for the index.

Analyzing the international macroeconomic factors affecting the market in the coming time, experts from MBS Securities Company believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Bank of England (BOE) will all make decisions on interest rates this week.However, with the instability in the Gulf region and the lack of clarity about how the energy shock will affect growth and inflation, these agencies may choose to wait and observe.

For the domestic macroeconomy, there is no major macroeconomic event.As of April 24.

In 2026, 431 listed banks and businesses representing 28.9% of the total market capitalization announced financial statements or preliminary estimates of Q1/2026 business results, with after-tax profit continuing to grow high, reaching 34.2% compared to the same period.SSI Research experts believe that in May, Q1/2026 business results continued to play a role in supporting the market.The main driving force comes from the banking and real estate groups.Notably, the consumer group - especially retail and technology - began to record clear improvements thanks to increased market share and product replacement demand.

Some cyclical industries such as building materials, oil and gas and electricity also maintained positive results, reflecting stable domestic demand.In the coming time, SSI Research believes that inflationary pressure and increased capital costs will gradually become clearer, increasing the risk of shrinking profit margins, especially for industries using high financial leverage.

The banking industry may face pressure to reduce the net interest margin (NIM) and the trend of normalizing asset quality, while real estate is still sensitive to interest rate developments.Regarding valuation, as of the end of April 2026, VN-Index is trading at a projected P/E ratio of about 13.2 times, approaching the 10-year average (14 times).

If excluding the Vingroup group, the valuation level is only about 10.3 times - showing that the price level is still relatively attractive.However, May is often a period without supporting information.In that context, significant increase in margin lending balance may be a factor to be monitored.It is estimated that by the end of March 2026, margin balance will reach about 424 trillion VND, an increase of 50% compared to the same period.

Although the margin/equity ratio is still at a controlled level (~102%), the margin ratio on free-float capitalization has increased to 13.4%, showing that the level of leverage is increasing.SSI Research forecasts that profit growth may slow down in the coming quarters, due to the impact of high cost of capital, volatile fuel prices and high comparisons from the previous year.This may limit the market's room for increase and cause fluctuations to increase in the short term.

However, deep corrections, if they appear, may open up opportunities to accumulate stocks with attractive valuations for long-term investors.MBS experts also gave their assessment that after a recovery of more than 5 consecutive weeks, the VN-Index is likely to exceed the threshold of 1,900 points, which is also the old peak at the beginning of 2026.However, the market may fall into a widespread correction when cash flow is concentrated in a few individual stocks.This is not a sign of ending the upward trend but a necessary break to accumulate momentum for the process of surpassing the peak of 1,900 points in the long term.