Ending the trading week from July 6-10, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 33.74 points, equivalent to -1.81% to 1,828.34 points. Market liquidity last week improved slightly compared to the previous week, but still at a level 23% lower than the 20-week average. Accumulated in the past week, the average matched order volume on the HOSE exchange reached 641 million shares/session, an increase of more than 3% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 17,041 billion VND/session, a slight increase of less than 1%.
In the past time, VN-Index has maintained in the high point area mainly thanks to the pulling force from a few large-cap stocks, while the overall picture is not very positive, especially the liquidity issue is at a low level.
Current liquidity, although improved compared to the previous period, is still very far from the necessary level to confirm a sustainable upward trend. According to observations, liquidity per session needs to return to the level of 25,000 billion VND or more to be truly remarkable. That is the threshold showing that large cash flow has entered the game, investors are no longer standing aside to observe but are ready to disburse at a significant scale. Below that threshold, every increase is potentially risky and lacks sustainability.
Some experts believe that the market at this time is in great need of a strong enough catalyst to change the situation. It could be a move to lower interest rates from the State Bank, a specific support policy for the economy, or clearer signals from the market upgrade process.
This week is also the time to enter the peak of the Q2/2026 business results reporting season. This is a factor that investors need to closely follow. Besides, there are some main signals that investors need to monitor. First of all, the possibility of maintaining the support zone around 1,880-1,820 points. If the index maintains this zone, the short-term trend base will not be broken. In the opposite direction, the 1,850-1,860 point zone will be the area to overcome to open up room to test higher zones.
The second signal is liquidity. An increase is only truly reliable if the trading value improves significantly, instead of just a sudden increase in a single session.
The third signal is the spread of cash flow. If the market only increases thanks to some large-cap stocks, the possibility of breakthrough will be difficult to sustain. Conversely, the simultaneous participation of banks, securities, mid-cap groups and industries with positive profit prospects will be a better confirmation signal.
In this period, investors should not chase buying just because the index is approaching the peak area. The most suitable strategy is to combine holding the core in the medium term and trading flexibly according to events, instead of just betting on a single direction.
With flexible trading, investors should pay attention to the Q2 reporting season as a specific catalyst. Businesses that announce business results exceeding forecasts often have a fairly good short-term price increase. This is an opportunity to rotate the portfolio, take profits in installments and reinvest in stocks with more attractive valuations after adjustment.
Regarding proportion, the recommendation given to investors is to maintain a portion of cash to have room to act when the market has a correction phase. Buying in the peak area always contains risks, while buying in the accumulation or correction phase will bring a better safety margin. Patience and selection are still two important keywords in this period.
