The trading week from July 20 - July 24 closed in red as VN-Index continued to face strong selling pressure with liquidity at a higher than average level. Although bottom-fishing demand has appeared in some overselling areas, that is not enough to reverse the cautious sentiment of cash flow.
After 4 consecutive weeks of decline, many views still lean towards the scenario that the market is in a stage of finding a balance point rather than immediately entering a sustainable upward trend.
According to the basic scenario given by OCBS Securities Company (CTCK), VN-Index is likely to still experience fluctuations this week. Besides technical factors, the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), US tariff policy, geopolitical developments, fluctuations in the international financial market and Q2/2026 business results will continue to dominate investor sentiment in the short term.
OCBS believes that if the Fed continues to maintain a tight stance or sends negative signals about interest rate prospects, volatility pressure on financial markets, including Vietnam, may increase. Conversely, if VN-Index maintains its support zone and demand continues to improve, the possibility of forming a short-term bottom will be strengthened, creating a premise for a technical recovery. In case the market recovers, the securities group is likely to attract cash flow thanks to its high sensitivity to index developments and liquidity. This is also a group that often reacts positively when market expectations improve.
CSI Securities Company believes that the index has broken through the psychological milestone of 1,700 points in the week and there are not many signals showing that the downward momentum has ended. It is highly likely that VN-Index will continue the correction phase next week with the expectation of reaching the support level around 1,630 points. It is not excluded that VN-Index will have a recovery phase to the 1,720 point mark next week and then return to the downward phase to the support level of 1,630 points.
CSI experts prioritize a cautious view, not opening new buy positions after the previous exploratory buying position has not been profitable. At the same time, manage risks disciplinarily, and sell to reduce a part of the proportion when VN-Index has a recovery to the resistance level of 1,720 points next week.
Commenting on the market's ability to bottom out, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Investment Analysis at DG Capital, said that the probability of a technical recovery in the short term is higher than the possibility of the market continuing to decline deeply. However, that is not enough to confirm that the upward trend has returned.
After a strong correction, many stocks have fallen into a state of oversold, the valuation level has become more attractive, while the pressure to sell off has also been somewhat absorbed. These are conditions that often create a premise for a recovery. However, to confirm that the market is entering a new upward trend, more consensus signals need to appear.
Investors should monitor some important factors such as: improved liquidity in increasing sessions; positive market breadth with cash flow spreading to many industry groups; foreign investors reduced net selling or returned to net buying, especially in large-cap groups; VN-Index maintained support zones after the recovery phase instead of creating a lower bottom; at the same time, leading groups such as banking, securities, real estate and technology formed a clear upward trend.
If these signals appear simultaneously, it can be expected that the risk of deep decline has narrowed and the possibility of forming a new upward trend will be strengthened," Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong stated his opinion.
