Stocks cannot reverse direction due to large margin call pressure

Gia Miêu |

The stock market, despite the positive support of some large-cap stocks, has not yet been able to recover from strong pressure.

In just the first three trading sessions of the week, VN-Index lost nearly 120 points, of which the session on July 22 alone decreased by more than 62 points. The index also lost the psychological milestone of 1,700 points when red color covered the market.

The capitalization of HoSE also "evaporated" nearly 1.2 million billion VND, remaining approximately 7.9 million billion VND. In general, on all 3 exchanges, Vietnamese stocks have evaporated 1.3 million billion VND of capitalization.

Entering the morning trading session today (July 23), the stock market continued its inertia of adjustment down when opening the trading session because red still dominated the electronic board.

Stepping into the continuous order matching session, the market reversed to recover and fluctuated slightly around the reference price thanks to the support from Vingroup's large stocks. However, selling pressure has not shown signs of decreasing, causing the market to continue to sink into red.

Closing the morning session on July 23, VN-Index decreased by 7.84 points (-0.47%) to 1,660.7 points with 45 gainers, while there were 267 losers. Total trading volume reached more than 346 million units, liquidity value reached 8,000 billion VND, down 16.4% in volume and 23.7% in value compared to yesterday morning's session.

The VIC-VHM pair still improved, closing the session up 4.3% and 2.3% respectively, continuing to contribute nearly 17.5 points to the general index but not enough to help VN-Index get green in the face of widespread selling pressure.

Returning to the diễn biến of the market, with VN-Index having decreased by more than 230 points from the peak of about 1,900 points (as of the end of the trading session on July 22), margin call pressure is likely to have appeared in a part of investors. As of the end of Q2/2026, outstanding loans (including margin and advance sales money) at securities companies are estimated at about 445. 000 billion VND, of which margin accounts for 435. 000 billion VND, an increase of about 30,000 billion VND compared to the end of the previous Q1 and is a record high ever.

On the other hand, bottom-fishing cash flow has not entered decisively even though many Bluechips fell deeply, even hitting the floor. Meanwhile, foreign investors are still continuously putting pressure on the market. Right in the recent session, foreign investors net sold more than VND 1,900 billion on HoSE. Since the beginning of the year, there has been no month when foreign investors stopped selling. The total net selling value has reached nearly VND 85,000 billion.

Notably, this time the pressure mainly comes from large investor groups such as domestic organizations, large shareholders or business owners, instead of individual investors. Market liquidity has been maintained at a low level for many months, showing that most small investors have proactively reduced leverage use in the past.

However, this is not yet a widespread auction, because the number of stocks falling to the floor is not too large and active selling pressure still prevails. What needs to be monitored more is the risk from mortgage loans of large shareholders or businesses. If stock prices continue to fall to the collateral area, auction pressure may have a stronger impact on the market.

Regarding valuation, if excluding the influence of the Vingroup group, VN-Index is currently trading around a P/E ratio of about 10 times. With the scenario of the market continuing to adjust, the valuation level may return to the low zone that appeared in previous crisis periods.

In this context, short-term investors need to prioritize risk management, reduce proportion in recovery phases and absolutely avoid using leverage, only considering disbursement when the market confirms bottom-fishing with improved liquidity at the 1,660-1,670 point area.

Gia Miêu
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