The stock market just opened the new week with a widespread sharp decline. Selling pressure spread quickly from the beginning of the session, pulling VN-Index continuously deep down and closing down nearly 44 points, equivalent to 2.46%, to the 1,743 point zone. Red color covered most of the market with nearly 600 declining codes, in which large-cap groups also could not avoid adjustment pressure.
Liquidity, although improved compared to some previous sessions, is still low, with the matched order value on HoSE not reaching VND 19,000 billion. This development shows that bottom-fishing demand is not strong enough to absorb the rising selling pressure.
Many analysts believe that it is very difficult to immediately confirm whether the market is entering a downtrend or just a strong correction. Although VN-Index is still in the 1,700 point zone, the pressure is not much different from the period when the index was in the 1,500 point zone. VN-Index has actually entered a weakening trend since the beginning of July. Selling pressure appears steadily through each session while cash flow is increasingly cautious, causing liquidity not to improve.
The continuous breaking of important moving averages shows that a downward trend has been formed before, instead of just appearing in the recent downward session. When the market declines for a long time but demand does not return, psychological pressure on investors is increasing.
Many accounts recorded losses of 15-20% in just about two weeks, falling into the threshold of having to supplement collateral. For accounts that did not have time to supplement margin, forced selling took place, causing supply to increase sharply and creating a widespread sell-off effect.
Besides the trading factor, the macroeconomic environment is also creating more pressure on the market. Domestically, credit growth continues to be higher than the rate of capital mobilization, forcing many banks to raise deposit interest rates to attract cash flow. Rising interest rates not only reduces expectations about the ability to improve liquidity in the stock market but also makes speculative cash flow more cautious. According to the law of asset valuation, when interest rates increase, risky assets such as stocks are often under greater discount pressure.
According to Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), VN-Index lost the psychological support zone of 1,750 points as selling pressure increased, especially in many stocks in VN30. The pressure to reduce margin debt is also stronger after Q2 end data showed that the amount of loans at securities companies continued to increase.
SHS expects the index to recover to test the 1,750-1,770 point zone after a deep decline session. However, most industry groups are still weak and short-term price increase opportunities are still few, so investors need to wait for market quality to improve before returning.
If sell-offs continue to increase, VN-Index is at risk of falling back to 1,670-1,700 points, the lowest level in April 2026. This is a risk scenario that needs to be considered even though the market may have a recovery in the coming sessions.
Shinhan Vietnam Securities Company (SSV) said that the sell-off of mortgages has dragged many stocks down sharply, including businesses that announced positive Q2 business results. Supply still prevailed as liquidity increased, the amplitude decreased sharply, and the index closed near the lowest level of the session.
The market may experience a short recovery because many stocks have been heavily sold. However, the recovery is only more reliable if bottom-fishing buying power improves significantly. In the base scenario, VN-Index may recover and then continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in a wide range of 1,600-1,780 points.
SSV recommends limiting margin and focusing on stocks that are accumulating and have growth business results. With medium-term goals, investors should choose businesses based on profits and valuation instead of just looking at VN-Index fluctuations; stocks with poor business prospects after Q2 reports may have their weight reduced.
