The stock market has just had a week of trading in positive green, thereby consolidating the recovery momentum after a 3-week deep decline. This development shows that market sentiment is changing more positively, but the short-term trend still needs more confirmation signals from cash flow.
The index falling deeply below the 1,600 point mark in the first session of last week has activated bottom-fishing demand, helping the market gradually stabilize again. However, the recovery takes place in the context of trading volume maintaining at a low level, reflecting that cautious sentiment still dominates and cash flow is not ready to return strongly.
However, the fact that the index maintained a widespread recovery state towards the end of the week shows that demand is gradually improving, thereby helping to reduce the risk of deep correction in the short term.
Regarding the level of influence, the 10 most positively influenced stocks brought the VN-Index a total of 16.08 points, of which VIC contributed the most with an increase of 4.3 points. In the opposite direction, MCH and STB are the two codes that put the most pressure, but also only took away a total of 0.75 points of the index.
BIDV Securities Company (BSC) believes that the Vietnamese stock market is entering a "fire test" phase when facing a series of uncertain variables from the external environment.
After a relatively stable growth period, the economic picture in March 2026 appeared with many new impulses, forcing investors to adjust their strategies in a more cautious direction.
According to BSC, geopolitical risks are reshaping the global cost level. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and new US tariff policies put pressure on the supply chain and energy prices, thereby directly impacting inflation and exchange rates.
This trend is assessed as not temporary, but may establish a "new normal state", requiring domestic monetary policy to be more flexible to maintain macroeconomic stability and support growth.
In the opposite direction, the momentum from fiscal policy is playing an important supporting role. In the context of unfavorable external factors, promoting public investment disbursement, along with support policies on taxes and fees, is expected to help the economy maintain growth momentum and improve business resilience.
In addition, the market upgrade roadmap according to FTSE standards is still being implemented on schedule and is considered a long-term strategy to attract foreign capital. Although market sentiment may be short-term affected by the "risk-off" trend, moving towards upgrading to emerging markets by the end of 2026 will contribute to improving transparency, liquidity and creating a foundation for a more sustainable development cycle.
Based on the overall assessment of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, BSC has adjusted down its forecast for the Vietnamese stock market in 2026. Specifically, the VN-Index target is lowered from 1,954 points to 1,750 points.
Market valuation was also adjusted in a more cautious direction, with forward P/E falling from the 15.5-16 times range to 13-13.5 times, approaching the 5-year average. According to BSC, this reflects the trend of shifting cash flow to lower-valued industry groups such as banking and oil and gas, while somewhat eliminating the "excitation" factor previously in large-cap stocks.
The prospect of corporate profit growth is also less positive as the growth rate of after-tax profit is expected to decrease to 11–12%, compared to 16–17% in the previous forecast. The main reason comes from increased input cost pressure, narrowing the profit margin.
Market liquidity was also slightly adjusted down, with an average trading value of about 0.96 billion USD/session, compared to the previous level of 1.06 billion USD/session, reflecting a "new normal" state after a period of strong fluctuations.
BSC believes that in the context of many unpredictable variables, strong market fluctuations will be an opportunity to filter and seek long-term investment opportunities, instead of just focusing on short-term factors.
