In the past week, the liquidity of the stock market has weakened and the net selling pressure of foreign investors has made it difficult for VN-Index, despite technical recovery, to form a sustainable upward trend in the short term.
Market liquidity last week remained at a low average level, clearly reflecting the hesitant sentiment of individual investors. Trading value in the week was all below the 20-session average, even in some sessions below 20 trillion VND.
The reason comes from the escalating risk of conflict and strong fluctuations in oil prices, causing cash flow to prioritize holding cash instead of risky assets. In addition, the increase in margin interest rates reduces purchasing power along with a cautious sentiment after strong adjustments, making investors not ready to return.
Meanwhile, foreign investors still maintain strong net selling. With only 2 trading sessions left on March 30-31 for the end of the first quarter of 2026, to date, foreign investors net sold more than 30,000 billion VND in the first quarter of the year, continuing the strong net selling momentum in 2025 with a figure of more than 1,209 billion VND.
Notably, in the two sessions of March 25-26, foreign investors strongly net sold FUEVFVND fund certificates - a rare development before that, showing that foreign capital is unlikely to become the main driving force for increase in the coming time.
In the context of increasing global risks, the Vietnamese market is not outside the general regional trend. Middle East tensions push inflation risks (through energy prices), causing capital flows to tend to withdraw from risky assets to return to safe channels such as USD or US government bonds. The DXY index remains around 100 and the yield of US 10-year bonds (US10Y) increased to 4.45%.
The net withdrawal trend has not only occurred in frontier and emerging markets such as Vietnam and Thailand, but also appeared in major markets such as Taiwan (China), South Korea, India, and Japan since US-Iran tensions escalated.
Answering the question of what factors will play the role of "activating" for cash flow to return to the market in the near future? Many experts believe that the key factor is still geopolitical developments and energy prices. If clearer cooling signals appear, especially when oil prices stabilize or decrease, risk psychology will be significantly improved, thereby creating conditions for cash flow to return.
With the scenario of the market maintaining above the 1,600 - 1,650 point zone accompanied by improved liquidity, this will be a signal that cash flow is starting to adapt to bad information and participate again proactively.
Notably, the time of announcing the mid-term upgrade review results of FTSE on April 7 may play a role as a short-term supporting factor in terms of expectations. However, more important is still the actual reaction of foreign capital flows, especially whether to switch to a net buying status or not, instead of just stopping at information.
In a volatile and unpredictable world, investors still have to adapt to have a plan to allocate assets, invest in stocks or a suitable investment channel for all situations, while still emphasizing risk management activities in addition to expected returns.
