According to data just released by the State Bank of Vietnam, by the end of May, personal customer deposits reached more than 10.826 million billion VND, an increase of 4.76% compared to the end of 2025, equivalent to about 491,000 billion VND. This is the highest level ever. Compared to the end of January 2022, the scale of residential deposits has nearly doubled, from about 5.4 million billion VND to more than 10.82 million billion VND after more than 4 years.
It is noteworthy that people's deposits are still increasing sharply even when deposit interest rates are no longer as high as in previous years. This shows that the top priority of idle money today is safety, not pursuing profit at all costs.
More importantly, alternative investment channels have not yet created enough attractiveness for cash flow to shift strongly. The gold and precious metals market has recorded significant price increases in recent times but also accompanied by a large fluctuation range. The real estate market has only begun to recover in a few segments.
As for securities, although the medium and long-term prospects are still positively assessed, market liquidity has recently tended to be lower than the same period last year. This shows that a part of investors are in a state of waiting for more clearer signals about business profit growth, economic prospects and new capital flows.
Meanwhile, the banking system is still facing a mismatch in capital term. Currently, about 80% of customers' deposits are for terms under 6 months, while the capital demand of the economy, especially for infrastructure investment and medium and long-term projects, is increasing.
The gap between short-term capital sources and long-term lending needs makes the pressure to mobilize long-term capital not yet reduced, thereby creating pressure on the general level of interest rates.
KBSV Securities Company gave its assessment that bank liquidity continues to be under pressure as credit growth exceeds deposits, while the requirement to stabilize inflation and exchange rates causes the flexibility of the State Bank's monetary policy to narrow significantly compared to 2025. This is one of the reasons why the deposit interest rate level continues to be maintained at a high level.
According to KBSV's point of view, deposit interest rates are likely to have approached the peak and will maintain a high level in the third quarter of 2026 before gradually cooling down from the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026. This expectation is based on pressure from oil prices and inflation that may decrease if the international geopolitical situation develops favorably, the VND/USD exchange rate continues to stabilize, public investment disbursement accelerates to help supplement liquidity for the system, and at the same time, the State Bank's operating solutions to reduce capital mobilization pressure will be effective from the third quarter of 2026.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Financial Investment Analysis Division of DG Capital fund, said that strong cash flow from residents flowing into banks does not mean being withdrawn from the economy. It is only that at this time investors are not ready to switch to assets with high volatility. Bank deposits therefore become a temporary place to anchor capital flows in the waiting period for clearer investment opportunities.
Forecasting interest rates, Dr. Phuong also expects that the deposit interest rate level will be more stable in the second half of the year thanks to solutions to support liquidity and improved disbursement progress of public investment. However, the possibility of a sharp decrease in interest rates is still not highly appreciated as the capital demand of the economy is forecast to continue to be maintained at a high level.
The important issue is to improve the capital absorption capacity of enterprises, develop a balance between the monetary and capital markets.A transparent corporate bond market, a stable stock market and an effective risk-sharing mechanism will help reduce pressure on the banking system, creating a long-term capital channel for the economy," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
