Wood industry exports have many positive signals
According to statistics from the Customs Department, the export value of wood and wood products in February 2025 reached 1.03 billion USD, down 27.7% compared to January 2025, but up 33.9% compared to February 2024. Of which, the export value of wood products reached 665.7 million USD, down 32.2% compared to January 2025, but up 38.9% compared to February 2024.
In the first 2 months of 2025, the export value of wood and wood products reached 2.45 billion USD, up 9.4% over the same period in 2024. Of which, the value of wood product exports reached 1.65 billion USD, up 9.1% over the same period in 2024.
Exports of wood and wood products in the first 2 months of 2025 will have many advantages, and export value to major markets will record positive growth.
Leading in the export value of wood and wood products is the US market reaching 1.3 billion USD, up 9.5% over the same period in 2024. The US is Vietnam's largest market for wood and wood products, with a value of 53.1% of total export value.
Next were exports to the Japanese market at 323.4 million USD, up 21%, accounting for 13.2%. China's market exports reached 259.9 million USD, down 15.2%, accounting for 10.6%. Exports to the Korean market reached 119.5 million USD, up 6.3%, accounting for 4.9%. Canada's market exports reached 43.7 million USD, up 21.6%, accounting for 1.8%...
The export value of wood and wood products achieved good results in the first 2 months of 2025. However, in the coming time, this industry will still face many difficulties, as major export markets increasingly require strict control of the origin of wood. For example, ensuring legality, not causing forest loss, green production, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing imported raw wood prices due to limited supply.
Wood export scenario before US tax policy
In 2025, the Vietnamese wood industry aims to have an export turnover of 18-18.5 billion USD, an increase of 10-15% compared to last year. However, according to Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai - Vice President of the Vietnam Wood and Forestry Association (Viforest) - in normal commercial conditions, this is a modest and easy-to-reach goal. However, in the context of many fluctuations in global trade, it is difficult to say whether the set targets will become a reality or not.
To respond, Viforest and businesses in the industry have been preparing to participate in hearings if the US side requests to prove that the trade relationship in the wood sector between Vietnam and the US is a complementary relationship.
According to Dr. Can Van Luc - Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Board of Directors, Chief Economist of BIDV - in the US market, Vietnamese wood products and wood products compete mainly with Canada, China, Brazil and Mexico... The Vietnamese wood industry exporting to the US is currently facing challenges such as controlling legal wood sources, risk of trade fraud, and requirements for origin.
If tariffs are applied in the US market, the possibility of shifting production from Vietnam will be only average because the supply chain is relatively stable, and demand in the US market is still very large. However, competitive pressure will be high from regional opponents such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia (especially when these opponents are subject to lower taxes).
However, it should also be noted that this item is also durable and has quite high price sensitivity. Therefore, when the economy is more difficult/unstable, consumers often tend to save, possibly reducing their purchase of this item.
"In the base scenario (taxes increased by 10%), the industry's export forecast in 2025 can reach 10-10.5 billion USD (increase 10-15%) due to the above supporting factors. Accordingly, the additional import tax payable by the industry is about more than 1 billion USD. In the negative scenario, the export growth rate may only reach 5-10%, while in the positive scenario, the export growth rate is up to 15-20%" - Dr. Can Van Luc predicted.
