The main export markets for wood and wood products in January 2025 include: the United States with 780 million USD, down 4.8%; Japan with 166 million USD, up 2.8%; China with 139 million USD, down 17.5%... compared to the same period last year.
According to MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), the recovery of the US market continues to be the main driving force for the increase of wood and wood product exports in 2025.
"The Fed plans to make two more interest rate cuts in 2025, thereby cooling the 30-year home loan interest rate in the US, contributing to the recovery of the housing market, helping wood consumption and wood products continue to grow strongly.
Not only that, we expect the tax policies of the new presidential term in the medium and long term to help Vietnamese wood products gain more market share from the shift trend of consumers in the US" - MBS experts assessed.
MBS assessed that wood consumption demand in some markets such as China and the EU will be more gloomy due to the challenges facing the macro outlook. With the economy in Vietnam's two wood export markets, China and the EU, forecast to face many challenges in 2025.
MBS believes that people's purchasing power in these two markets will decrease, causing the demand for non-essential goods, including wooden furniture, in the two markets to be darker than in 2024.
MBS believes that the decrease in transportation rates will help improve the number of orders for wood and wood product export enterprises. With expectations that transportation prices will cool down thanks to reduced political tensions in the Red Sea, combined with trade activities in China, the world's second largest economy slowed down when the US applied new tax policies.
Although not directly affected by businesses exporting under the FOB method, high prices have forced businesses to reduce selling prices to support customers. MBS believes that cooling transportation fares will help reduce pressure on selling prices and improve revenue.
Recently, the Economic Development and Cooperation Organization (OECD) lowered its economic growth forecast for Germany and France when it said that the political crisis and weak global demand have affected the growth prospects of the two leading European economies, with growth rates of 0.7% (down 0.4% compared to the previous forecast) and 0.9% (down 0.3% compared to the previous forecast).
With this situation, exports of wood and wood products to the Chinese and EU markets may decrease in 2025...
