New impetus from innovation and institutions
In the new development phase, the goal of double-digit growth is not only an aspiration but also an inevitable requirement for Ho Chi Minh City to continue to maintain its leading economic role in the country. Faced with a rapidly changing and increasingly fiercely competitive world, the city is forced to transform strongly, not only to grow rapidly but also to be sustainable, based on innovation, technology and institutional reform. New opportunities are opening up, but accompanied by a widespread pressure to change to improve competitiveness and long-term resilience.
According to Mr. Pham Phu Ngoc Trai - Chairman of the Advisory Council for Innovation Strategy of Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, in the new development phase, Vietnam sets a double-digit growth target to create a socio-economic leap forward, based on productivity, innovation and deep integration into the global value chain. In that strategy, Ho Chi Minh City plays a particularly important role when contributing more than 20% of GDP and nearly 30% of the budget, and is also the largest financial, commercial and innovation center in the country. Therefore, the city's growth has a direct impact on the prospects of the national economy.
However, in the context of a rapidly changing world, the requirement is not only rapid growth but also sustainability, maintaining long-term momentum and improving resilience. This requires Ho Chi Minh City to approach strategically, associated with three pillars: Energy, growth model and institutional reform.
Global fluctuations today are creating both challenges and opportunities. This can be seen as a moment when the need for change becomes urgent and cannot be delayed if we want to create breakthroughs in the growth model and competitiveness of the economy. History shows that many countries have taken advantage of periods of fluctuation to promote deep reforms, thereby rising strongly.
For Ho Chi Minh City, this is the time to promote the role of "policy laboratory", testing breakthrough models. Typically, the strategy of building an international financial center requires framework mechanisms such as "sandboxes" for fintech, digital finance and green financial tools. These mechanisms not only attract international capital flows but also create spillover effects to fields such as high technology, logistics, infrastructure and value-added services.
In addition, strategic technologies such as AI, big data and digital infrastructure will contribute to improving productivity and forming new business models. Strengthening regional linkages and developing synchronous infrastructure also helps optimize resources and improve system efficiency.
To achieve the goal, breakthrough mechanisms need to be designed as a new institutional platform, not just individual incentives. The focus is on ensuring energy security, transforming the growth model based on technology and promoting institutional reform. This is not just a growth problem, but a decisive moment for vision and action to turn challenges into new development drivers.
Two-digit growth aspiration and model transformation problem
Continuing this perspective, experts believe that the foundation of socio-economic stability and adaptability of Ho Chi Minh City will be an important "support" for implementing long-term strategies.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan - Chairman of the Advisory Council for Breakthrough Development of Saigon University, said that this stage is both a challenge and brings opportunities for the city in the field of green transformation, digital transformation and economic restructuring. According to him, Ho Chi Minh City is a dynamic and courageous city in the face of crises when in the past it overcame a severe crisis, disrupting the supply chain of the COVID-19 pandemic. The city has maintained macroeconomic stability, social security, and security and order to lay the foundation for breakthroughs.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan said that Vietnam has overcome previous difficult periods thanks to flexible fiscal policies and a maintained social security system. In the current context, he proposed to prioritize stabilizing the energy market, strengthening anti-smuggling, and at the same time implementing measures to support people's lives such as subsidizing public transport and stabilizing food and foodstuff prices. The city needs to gradually reduce dependence on fossil fuels, develop clean transport infrastructure and encourage vehicles to use renewable energy. If Ho Chi Minh City's metro network is completed, the pressure on people's gasoline and oil demand will be significantly reduced, thereby limiting the scenes of queuing to buy gasoline as in the past.
Regarding the stable foundation and adaptability of Ho Chi Minh City, Dr. Tran Du Lich - Member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council - said that like the whole country, Ho Chi Minh City sets a double-digit GRDP growth target in the 2026-2030 period and the following years. This is a political aspiration and determination to overcome the "middle-income trap", in the context that the "golden population" is only about three 5-year plans left. The 2026-2035 period is therefore decisive for the goal of making Vietnam a high-income country by 2045.
If high growth rates are maintained, Ho Chi Minh City's economic scale could reach about 310 billion USD by 2035, with an average GRDP per capita of about 21,500 USD. However, according to him, the key factor to achieve this goal is not only capital or technology, but also policies and institutions. The city is having an opportunity when many bottlenecks in institutions and transport infrastructure are gradually being removed; along with that are decentralization mechanisms, specific policies and strategic infrastructure projects being implemented.
Ho Chi Minh City needs to transform its growth model from capital-based to knowledge-based, enhancing the role of productivity and innovation. This requires strong investment in digital infrastructure, data centers, 5G technology, developing open data platforms and building a startup and innovation ecosystem to create sustainable growth momentum in the coming period.
