Exports and FDI maintain growth momentum
According to the September 2025 macro report of Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC), after more than a month of the US imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, exports still maintained their growth rate.
In August 2025, exports increased by 14.8% over the same period, of which FDI increased by 27.3%, while the domestic sector decreased by 15.7%. Exports to the US alone increased by 18.3% over the same period, focusing on electronics, toys, chemicals, plastic and rubber. VDSC commented: Maning export pressure is a positive factor for growth, however, it is necessary to look deep into the reality that export growth is only strong in the FDI group and electronics exports, not from the domestic sector.
FDI capital flows continue to be a bright spot. According to VDSC, FDI capital implemented in August 2025 reached 1.9 billion USD, bringing the total disbursed capital for 8 months to 15.5 billion USD, up 8.8% over the same period. Of which, the manufacturing and processing industry accounts for 12.6 billion USD. Notable projects include Luxshare-ICT (Bac Ninh, 300 million USD), GE Vernova (Hai Phong, 207 million USD) and Hailide Fyrs (Tay Ninh, 200 million USD).
Meanwhile, the report of SSI Securities emphasized: Vietnam's economy continued to accelerate in August, following the recovery momentum from July. Growth is comprehensive, spreading to industry, trade, investment and household consumption, while inflation is still well controlled and budget revenue continues to exceed targets".
Improved internal resources, public finance and investment create a foundation
According to SSI, industrial production in August 2025 increased by 8.9% over the same period, with the main drivers coming from automobiles, plastic, textiles and electronics. SSI emphasized: More importantly, data shows that the industrial platform is expanding, with Vietnams increasingly greater competitiveness in many export industries.
Domestic demand continues to improve as retail sales in August 2025 increased by more than 10%. The number of international visitors exceeded 1.6 million, bringing the total for the first 8 months to nearly 14 million - significantly higher than before the pandemic. Inflation remains at more than 3%, much lower than the Government's target of 4 - 4.5%.
Public investment accelerates again. According to the Ministry of Finance and VDSC, accumulated for 8 months, public investment disbursement reached VND434 trillion, up 49% over the same period, equivalent to 40% of the plan. The Government sets a target of 531 trillion VND in the first 9 months and needs to disburse an additional 450 trillion VND in the last 4 months of the year to complete the plan.
Regarding finances, the national public debt report shows that the public debt/GDP ratio at the end of 2024 is 34%, much lower than the ceiling of 60%. The 8-month budget surplus reached 290 trillion VND, while budget revenue is estimated at 1.7 million billion VND, up 28.5% over the same period, strengthening the ability to complete the whole year target of nearly 2.5 million billion VND.
PMI accelerates and policy challenges
Data from S&P Global shows that the Vietnam manufacturing PMI in August 2025 decreased from 52.4 to 50.4 points, falling from the leading position in ASEAN to 5th place. This level is still 50 points higher, but shows that business conditions have only improved slightly.
Meanwhile, many ASEAN countries have recorded more obvious improvements. Thailand scored 52.7 points, Indonesia scored 51.5 points, Singapore scored 51.2 points and the Philippines scored 50.8 points. S&P Global commented: Pmi index data for August showed that the growth momentum of the ASEAN manufacturing sector has become stronger after the recovery recorded in July. Customer demand has become stronger, as reflected in the new increase in the number of new orders".
Meanwhile, from a financial - monetary perspective, SSI noted that credit increased by 20.19% over the same period, far exceeding the growth rate of nominative GDP. This creates momentum for growth but also increases the risk of inflation. At the same time, domestic gold prices have sometimes increased to 135 million VND/tael, 14 - 15% higher than the world price.
Despite domestic production challenges and financial market risks, the Vietnamese economy is still supported by three pillars: FDI exports, stable FDI disbursement flows and large fiscal space. This is the basis for expecting growth to remain positive in the last months of 2025.
