Vietnam's weather is clearly influenced by ENSO activities. The National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting has updated its forecast of ENSO developments in the next 6 months (from July to December 2024).
Regarding the ENSO phenomenon , currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in the neutral phase. It is forecast that from July - September 2024, ENSO is likely to switch to La Nina state with a probability of 65 - 75%.
From October to December, it is forecast that the ENSO phenomenon will continue to remain in La Nina state with a probability of about 80 - 90%.
Tropical cyclone activity : From now until September, about 5-7 tropical storms/tropical depressions are likely to appear in the East Sea; Of which, about 2-3 storms landed on land.
The average number of storms/tropical depressions in many years in the East Sea during this period is from 6 to 7, with an average of about 3 storms landing in Vietnam.
From October to December, about 4-6 storms/tropical depressions are likely to appear in the East Sea; Of which, about 2-3 storms landed on land.
The average number of tropical storms/tropical depressions in many years in the East Sea during this period is from 4 to 5, with an average of about 2 storms landing in Vietnam.
The meteorological agency especially noted that in the upcoming period of the 2024 storm season, it is necessary to guard against the possibility of tropical storms/low pressure forming right in the East Sea area.
In addition, in the second half of the year, tropical storms/low pressure, southwest monsoon, and northeast monsoon are likely to cause strong winds and large waves, affecting activities in the East Sea region.
Heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and hail can negatively affect production and daily activities of communities in affected areas.
Regarding the oceanographic situation , the period from the end of June to September is the active period of the southwest monsoon, the wave height in the area off the Central coast, in the East Sea region (including the Hoang Sa archipelago) is about 2 - 4m, rough sea.
During this period, the coastal areas of the Northern, North and Central regions need to be careful of large waves combined with storm surges and tropical depressions, with a high risk of causing riverbank and coastal erosion.
Along the Southeast coast, from the second half of June to the end of September, there is a possibility of 7 high tides. However, the water level at Vung Tau station during high tides is only below 4.1m.
Because at this time, the Southeast coastal area is not affected by the northeast monsoon, so the risk of flooding in low-lying areas and areas outside the dike is low.
For the Southwestern coastal region, from the end of July and August, it is necessary to guard against unusually high sea levels causing sea dyke erosion during high tides combined with large waves during the strong southwest monsoon. .
From October to December, coastal areas in the Northern and Central regions need to continue to guard against large waves combined with storm surges and tropical depressions.
In addition, due to the influence of the northeast monsoon, wave heights in the Gulf of Tonkin area can reach 2 - 4m, and in the waters off the Central Coast, waves range from 3 - 5m.
