The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a 3-month climate forecast (from November 2024 to January 2025) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
At present, atmospheric and ocean conditions are in an intermediate state leaning towards the cold phase. ENSO is forecast to potentially transition to a weak La Nina state in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025 with a probability of about 70 - 75%.
Regarding monsoon activity, the winter monsoon intensity is likely to be close to or stronger than the long-term average. Severe cold spells are likely to occur at levels close to the long-term average and there is a possibility of prolonged spells during the main winter months.
Temperature trends in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025 are approximately the average value of many years in the same period in the Northern and North Central regions and approximately to higher than the average value of many years in the South Central, Central Highlands and South regions.
Total rainfall in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025 is likely to be approximately or lower than the multi-year average in the North, approximately to higher than the multi-year average in the North Central region. Rainfall in the South Central region, Central Highlands, and South is likely to be higher than the multi-year average.
Therefore, it is necessary to guard against heavy rains causing serious floods in the Central region in November - December 2024.
The 2024-2025 dry season in the Central Highlands and the South is likely to arrive later than the average of many years. The possibility of unseasonal rains will reduce drought conditions in the region.
Regarding tropical cyclone activity, in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025, the number of storms and tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
According to the average data of many years in the above period, there are about 2 - 3 storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area; of which 1 - 2 storms affect Vietnam.
Currently, Typhoon No. 7 Yinxing is active in the western waters of the North East Sea. At the same time, Typhoon Toraji is active in the eastern waters of Luzon Island (Philippines) and is likely to enter the East Sea on November 12.
