Last night and this morning (August 21), the Northeast region and from Thanh Hoa to Nghe An had moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms, locally very heavy rain. Rainfall from 7 pm on August 20 to 8 am on August 21 in some places was over 100mm such as Ba Hang Doi (Phu Tho) 155mm, Thanh Ha (Hanoi) 122.8mm, Vinh Thinh (Thanh Hoa) 109.4mm...
Yesterday afternoon, August 20, Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that the tropical depression is located on a trophic convergence zone. Forecast models still have a certain dispersion in terms of trajectory, intensity and area of direct impact on land. According to current data, there are 2 main groups of disaster risk scenarios.
Scenario 1 is a scenario with a high probability of about 60 - 70%. The tropical depression after entering the Gulf of Tonkin moves slowly, is likely to strengthen into a level 8 storm, moves north and makes landfall in the coastal area of the Northeast region.
This scenario will cause heavy rain in the North to increase again from August 21st and concentrate in the eastern region of the North, including Cao Bang, Thai Nguyen, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Phong, Quang Ninh areas with heavy to very heavy rain" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.
Scenario 2 is the extreme possibility of rain, with a probability of about 30 - 40%.
According to scenario 2, after entering the Gulf of Tonkin and strengthening into a storm, the tropical depression/storm will continue to move slowly to the west and make landfall in the southern area of the Northern Delta and then weaken. This scenario will cause heavy to very heavy rain in the Northeast region, peaking from August 22 - 25" - Mr. Khiem provided forecast information.
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem, these scenarios will continue to change when the tropical depression moves deep into the Gulf of Tonkin. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to monitoring the developments of the tropical depression, the situation of natural disasters, strong winds, and thunderstorms in the East Sea in the next bulletins of the Hydrometeorological agency.
This morning, August 21, the meteorological agency has detailed forecasts of heavy rain developments in the next 24 to 48 hours.
The Northeast region and Thanh Hoa from August 21 to the night of August 22, there will be moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms with common rainfall from 70-150mm, locally very heavy rain over 300mm. Warning of the risk of heavy rain with rainfall greater than 120mm within 3 hours.
From August 23, the Northeast region and Thanh Hoa will continue to have moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms, locally very heavy rain in some places and it is likely to last longer.
Nghe An area on August 21, with moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms, with common rainfall of 20-40mm, locally very heavy rain over 80mm.
The Central Highlands and Southern regions on the day and night of August 21st, there will be showers and scattered thunderstorms with rainfall of 15-30mm, locally heavy rain over 60mm. Rain is concentrated in the late afternoon and evening. In thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind.
Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in low-lying areas, urban areas, and industrial parks; flash floods on small rivers and streams, and landslides on slopes.
