Forecast risk of Typhoon Sinlaku to strengthen into the first super typhoon in 2026

AN AN |

Typhoon Sinlaku may strengthen to super typhoon level. This will be the first super typhoon in the Northwest Pacific in the 2026 typhoon season and will not move into the East Sea.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has provided updated information about Typhoon Sinlaku.

Accordingly, after 2 days of strengthening into a storm, by 1 pm today (April 12), Typhoon Sinlaku (the 4th storm operating in the Northwest Pacific region) is located at about 10.3 degrees north latitude - 150.7 degrees east longitude. Intensity reaches level 15 (approximately super typhoon level), gusts above level 17 and is still about 3000km away from the Philippines.

According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, analyzing from satellite data, currently Typhoon Sinlaku is in the process of increasing rapid intensity, the eye of the typhoon is clear, the convective cloud area is developing strongly and the circulation is symmetrical.

Ông Mai Văn Khiêm cho biết việc xuất hiện siêu bão ở vùng biển Tây Bắc Thái Bình Dương trong tháng 4 là tương đối hiếm gặp. Ảnh: An An
Mr. Mai Van Khiem said that the appearance of super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific in April is relatively rare. Photo: An An

Favorable environmental conditions in the sea area (high sea surface temperature, abundant heat throughput from the ocean, weak upper-level wind fault) create conditions for the storm to continue to strengthen rapidly in the next 24 hours" - Mr. Khiem said.

The meteorological agency forecasts that in the next 24 hours, Typhoon Sinlaku will move in a Northwest direction at a speed of about 15km/h and is likely to strengthen into a super typhoon.

This will be the first super typhoon to operate in the Northwest Pacific region in this year's storm season and one of the very few super typhoons to appear in April" - Mr. Khiem said.

The intensity of Super Typhoon Sinlaku is strongest at about level 16 - 17, gusting above level 17. After strengthening into a super typhoon, Super Typhoon Sinlaku will change direction to move north, then it is likely to continue to change direction again to north-northeast direction around April 16 - 17. 4 and move to the sea area east of Japan and the intensity will gradually decrease.

Currently, storm forecasts all show that the storm is unlikely to enter the East Sea area. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting is still closely monitoring the developments of this early-season super typhoon.

Regarding the storm season 2026 trend, the seasonal deadline bulletin from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that from April to June 2026, storms/tropical depressions will operate in the East Sea area and directly affect the mainland at a level equivalent to the multi-year average. Usually, the storm season in Vietnam starts around June.

According to multi-year average data in the East Sea in the period from April to June, there are about 1.8 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall 0.3 storms.

From July to September 2026, the activity of tropical cyclones will increase. It is forecast that the number of storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea and making landfall in our country will be equivalent to the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data from July to September in the East Sea, there are about 6.5 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall about 2.9 storms.

Mr. Mai Van Khiem analyzed and predicted that in 2026, the atmosphere-ocean system will undergo many phase transition states.

With the continuous phase transition nature of such a large-scale ENSO phenomenon, atmosphere-ocean conditions will be unstable. This may be the cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena such as strong storms, heavy rains... appearing in 2026" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.

AN AN
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