The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecasted the weather trend for the season (from March to August 2025).
ENSO is in a weak La Nina state
Regarding the ENSO phenomenon, ENSO is currently in La Nina conditions, with the standard deviation of sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean being 0.6 degrees Celsius lower than the average of many years in the first week of February 2025.
From March to May 2025, ENSO is likely to gradually shift to a neutral state with a probability of 60 - 70%.
From June to August 2025, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to remain neutral.
Regular rainfall in March 2025, the Central and Southern regions are likely to experience some days of scattered showers and thunderstorms in some places. From April 2025, rain is likely to appear early and increase in the Central Highlands and the South; the rainy season in the Northern region is equivalent to the average of many years.
During the rainy months in the Central Highlands and the South, total rainfall tends to be lower than the average of many years due to weaker-than-normal southwest monsoons.
The storm season is equivalent to the average of many years
Dangerous sea conditions, from March to May 2025, storms/tropical depressions are unlikely to operate in the East Sea and are equivalent to the average of many years. According to the average data of many years in the period of March - May in the East Sea, there are 0.9 storms/tropical depressions, 0 of which make landfall.
From June to August 2025, storm/tropical depression activity in the East Sea and directly affecting the mainland will be at a level equivalent to the average of many years. According to the average data of many years in the June - August period in the East Sea, there were 5.2 storms/tropical depressions, 1.9 of which made landfall.
The meteorological agency warns that storms, tropical depressions and southwest monsoons are likely to cause strong winds and large waves affecting activities in the East Sea.
Regarding the hydrological situation, from the second half of February to May 2025, due to the influence of cold air, waves in the Central region may reach 2 - 3m, the North and Central East Sea may reach 3 - 5m.
In addition, during this time, it is necessary to be on guard against coastal erosion, especially during high tides combined with strong northeast monsoons.
From the second half of February to May 2025, there will be 7 high tides in the Southeast coastal area. The largest water level at Vung Tau station during this period can reach 4.2m between 1 - 3am on March 31. Low-lying areas, riverside areas and areas outside the dykes of the coastal area of the Southeast are likely to be flooded.
From June to August 2025, the southwest monsoon will begin to operate, especially in the South China Sea. Waves in the sea area from Binh Dinh to Ninh Thuan, the South China Sea area can reach 2 - 4m, the Gulf of Thailand area, the common wave level ranges from 1 - 2.5m.
Coastal areas of the provinces also need to pay attention to be on guard against large waves combined with rising water due to the influence of storms/tropical depressions in the period from July to August 2025, with a high risk of riverbank and coastal erosion.
The meteorological agency noted that season warning bulletins are often trend forecasts. Therefore, to have a better basis for weather forecast information, people should wait for short-term bulletins issued daily.
