The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the 3-month period (from July to September 2025) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
The reporter had an interview with Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change - about the most notable weather features in the above period.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien, can you tell us about the activities of ENSO and the summer monsoon in the coming time?
- We have made some key comments for this summer. First of all, the ENSO phenomenon is in a neutral state. ENSO is forecast to maintain a neutral state from July to September with a probability of about 70%.
The intensity of the summer monsoon is approximately the average of many years. The end of the summer monsoon is likely to be close to the average of many years (ie in late September or early October).
What is the forecast for temperature and rainfall trends this summer, sir?
- With the temperature, in the 3 months from July to September, the temperature is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years nationwide.
Hot weather is likely to occur widely in the North and Central regions in July and August; then gradually decrease in September. The intensity of hot weather is less severe than in 2024.
Regarding the rainfall trend, in the North, Central Highlands, South Central regions, the expected rainfall is approximately the average of many years. In the North Central region, the rainfall is approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien, what is the forecast for the trend of storms and tropical depressions from now until the end of 2025?
- Forecasts show that in the 3 months from July to September, the number of tropical cyclones active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam will be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
Accordingly, on average, there are about 6 - 7 activities in the East Sea every year and 3 - 4 cases directly affecting the mainland of Vietnam.
In terms of the entire storm season, the forecast for the number of storms and tropical depressions active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in 2025 is likely to be approximately equal to or lower than the average of many years.
According to the average data of many years, there are about 12 - 13 tropical cyclones active in the East Sea and 6 - 7 storms affecting Vietnam.
However, it is worth noting that the number of strong storms (from level 12 and above) active in the East Sea in 2025 is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
Sincerely thank you!
