The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science has released a 3-month climate forecast (from now until June 2025) based on climate diễn biến analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien, - Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science, the probability of ENSO transitioning to El Nino in the summer of 2026 is over 60% and may last until the end of the year.
Regarding the temperature trend, from April to June 2026, the temperature is likely to be higher than the multi-year average in the North and the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue city; approximately to higher than the multi-year average in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and Southern regions.
Forecast of the start of the summer monsoon and activity intensity at a level equivalent to the multi-year average (multi-year average summer monsoon starts around the 2nd week of May).
The first hot spells of the season in the recent time in the North and Central regions are mainly due to the impact of the hot low pressure from the West. Thus, in essence, the hot spells may be dominated by different atmospheric circulation systems" - Mr. Kien analyzed.
According to this meteorological researcher, from April to June 2026, hot weather will appear widely in the Northern, Central, Southern regions and locally in the Central Highlands. The intensity of hot weather may be harsher than the average of many years.
Regarding rainfall trends, in 3 months from April to June, total rainfall is likely to be close to the multi-year average of the same period in most areas of the country.
The rainy season in the Central Highlands and Southern regions is likely to start at a level close to the multi-year average, which is around the end of April to the beginning of May" - Dr. Truong Ba Kien added.
Regarding the tropical cyclone trend, according to the Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, the 2026 storm season is likely to start at a level close to the multi-year average. Usually, the storm season in the East Sea is calculated from about June to November, sometimes extending to December depending on the source of data and statistics.
From April to June 2026, the number of tropical cyclones operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is likely to be approximately the multi-year average (about 1-2 cyclones in the East Sea and 0.6 cyclones affecting Vietnam).
The number of storms and low pressures in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in 2026 is likely to be equivalent to the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data, there are about 12-13 storms in the East Sea, of which 6-7 storms affect Vietnam" - Mr. Kien assessed.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien especially emphasized that in typical El Nino years, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea may decrease, but there is a potential risk of stronger storms and more complex trajectories. Therefore, even if the number decreases, the risks related to the storm season are still very high.
