The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued a climate trend forecast for 2025.
Accordingly, the ENSO phenomenon is currently in La Nina conditions.
It is forecasted that the ENSO phenomenon is likely to gradually return to a neutral state with a probability of 55 - 65% from around March to May 2025) and will likely maintain a neutral state in the remaining months of 2025.
Regarding the activity of storms/tropical depressions, from January to April 2025, there is little chance of storms operating in the East Sea and affecting our country. The number of storms/tropical depressions is approximately the same as the average of many years: 0.4 storms in the East Sea.
From May to June 2025, storm/tropical depression activity in the East Sea will occur and make landfall at a level equivalent to the average of many years (average of 1.6 storms in many years in the East Sea, 0.3 storms making landfall).
From July to December 2025, the number of storms/tropical depressions active in the East Sea and affecting the mainland is likely to be approximately the same as the average of many years (concentrated in the second half of the rainy and stormy season).
In particular, from July to September, storms/tropical depressions will mainly affect the Northern provinces. From September to December, storms/tropical depressions will mainly affect the Central provinces and the southern region.
Previously, in 2024, there were 11 tropical cyclones in the East Sea, including 10 storms and 1 tropical depression. The number of storms/tropical depressions active in the East Sea is approximately the same as the average of many years (an average of 11 - 13 storms in many years).
Regarding rainfall, the Northern region in March 2025 will have a total rainfall of 5 - 10mm higher than the average of many years.
In April 2025, the total rainfall will be 5 - 15mm lower than the average of many years. In May - June 2025, total rainfall will be approximately the same as the average of many years.
The Central region from March to April 2025 has total rainfall in the North Central region, which is approximately the same as the average of many years. In the South Central region, the total rainfall in April 2025 was 5 - 15mm higher than the average of many years.
In May - June 2025, total rainfall will generally be 5 - 15% higher than the average of many years, especially in the area from Nghe An to Thua Thien Hue in June 2025, the total rainfall will be 15 - 40% higher than the average of many years in the same period.
The Central Highlands and the South in March - April 2025 are generally about 5 - 25mm higher than the average of many years. In May - June 2025, total rainfall will generally be 5 - 15% higher than the average of many years in the same period.
The time of the rainy season in the Central Highlands and the South is likely to be similar to the annual average
From July to September 2025, total rainfall in the Northern and North Central provinces is likely to be higher than the average of many years, the remaining areas will have total rainfall at a level approximately equal to the average of many years in the same period.
From October to December 2025, the total rainfall nationwide will be approximately the same as the average of many years in the same period.
