Due to the impact of climate change, natural disasters in 2024 in Vietnam will be very extreme with 21/22 types of natural disasters (storms, tropical depressions, severe cold, widespread heat, widespread heavy rain, floods, inundation, flash floods, landslides...).
Of these, 10 storms and 1 tropical depression were recorded, of which 4 directly affected the mainland; 18 cold spells; 19 heat waves; 21 widespread heavy rains; 14 floods; 39 flash floods and landslides.
The reporter had an interview with Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting to assess the scale of natural disasters in 2024 and predict trends in 2025.
Mr. Mai Van Khiem, from a hydrometeorological perspective, how do you assess the nature and scale of natural disasters in 2024?
- Global warming is one of the main factors that makes weather, climate and natural disasters around the world, as well as in Vietnam, become unusual and different.
I would like to cite the nature, extent, scale of space and time as follows: From the beginning of 2024, we faced drought and salinity in the Mekong Delta (although not as severe as 2015 - 2016, 2019 - 2020), but it also greatly affected production as well as the lives of people.
Then, we witnessed a record-breaking 70-day heat wave in the Southeast region around March - April. April recorded the highest temperature of 44 degrees Celsius in Quang Tri, breaking the record.
August is usually the month with the most storm activity, but August 2024 has seen almost no storm activity in the East Sea.
Regarding the number of storms, 10 storms were recorded in 2024 - not many in number but their extreme nature is clearly shown, such as storm number 3 Yagi. This is the strongest storm in 30 years in the East Sea and in the past 70 years to make landfall in our country.
For many years, those of us working in hydrometeorology have witnessed a storm of such a terrible scale and nature. The storm has shown its unusual and extreme nature, especially in the context of climate change.
So what are the current difficulties in forecasting natural disasters, especially rain forecasting, sir?
- Regarding natural disaster forecasting, not only Vietnam but also countries around the world still face many difficulties, especially forecasting natural disasters that occur quickly in a small area. For example, localized heavy rains occurring in a very short period of time (1 - 2 hours in a small area). This type of natural disaster is a challenge for current forecasting technology.
We will focus on improving technology, strengthening the monitoring network; at the same time, raising awareness of local people so that when natural disasters occur, there will be warning bulletins on mass media so that timely preventive measures can be taken to avoid damage caused by natural disasters.
Sir, how is the forecast for natural disasters in 2025 going to develop and what should be noted?
- It is almost certain that in the context of increasing global temperatures, in the coming years, heat waves will become more severe and intense.
Second, we will almost certainly face the appearance of many heavy rains, especially localized heavy rains in mountainous and urban areas. The related consequences are flash floods, landslides and urban flooding.
Third, strong storms and super storms are more likely to appear.
Thank you very much!
