Given the complicated developments of super typhoon Ragasa, late this afternoon, September 22, Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting provided the latest comments on the scenario of this storm.
The focus of impact is the Northeast region
Sir Hoang Phuc Lam, the time when super typhoon Ragasa enters the East Sea is approaching. How is the intensity of the storm in the East Sea forecast?
- We predict that tonight, September 22, Typhoon Ragasa will enter the East Sea and become the ninth typhoon of 2025. The storm is likely to continue to maintain the intensity of level 17, which is a super typhoon in the first 24 hours of moving in the East Sea.
Then, from around September 24, the storm could gradually weaken before moving into mainland China.
Currently, which scenario of the path of super typhoon Ragasa has the highest probability and predicts which provinces and cities in Vietnam are at risk of being directly affected by the storm, sir?
- Current forecasts offer two options. The more likely option is that the storm will head towards the mainland of Guangdong province (China), then weaken, move towards the Gulf of Tonkin and affect the Northeastern provinces.
In this scenario, the focus of impact will be the Northeast region, expanding to Thanh Hoa, Nghe An and Ha Tinh.
The second option is for the typhoon to move lower, not making landfall in China but moving mainly at sea. At that time, the intensity of the storm will be stronger and the level of danger will be higher.
However, we are currently officially predicting the first option with a higher chance of occurring. The storm made landfall in mainland China, then moved along the coast to the Gulf of Tonkin and caused strong winds and heavy rain in the provinces from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh from the night of September 24 to about September 27.
The storm is so strong that it can sink a heavy-duty ship
So what impact can a storm that maintains such a strong intensity have on the weather at sea? Do you have any warnings about the operation of ships in the coming days?
- As super typhoon Ragasa was still in the Northwest Pacific, its intensity was stronger than Typhoon Yagi. If Ragasa continues to maintain its current intensity tonight, when entering the East Sea, it will be stronger than Typhoon Yagi in 2024.
Currently, in the North East Sea area, the super typhoon may reach a very strong intensity of level 16 - 17. Even heavy-duty ships are at risk of sinking, which is very dangerous.
For the Gulf of Tonkin and coastal areas of the Northern and Central provinces, we warn that the storm may maintain the intensity of level 10 - 12. Shipments need to strictly follow the instructions of local authorities and urgently take shelter before the storm enters in the next 1-2 days.
The circulation of Ragasa is said to be very large and complex. How does this affect the ability to accurately predict the intensity and trajectory of storms?
- Yes, Typhoon Ragasa is one of the storms with the largest and strongest circulation in the East Sea. Because cold air masses have begun to appear at this time, although their intensity is not strong, the impact of dry cold air will make the development of the intensity and trajectory of storm No. 9 Ragasa very complicated in the coming days.
Sincerely thank you!
