Vietnamese people are increasingly reluctant to have children, golden population is about to close
According to the Population Office (Ministry of Health), Vietnam achieved a replacement fertility rate (2.1 children/woman) from 2006 and maintained it until 2021, creating conditions to enter the golden population period from 2007. This is considered a period with a high proportion of people of working age, creating an important advantage for economic growth.
However, the birth rate has decreased to 1.93 children/woman in 2025, lower than the replacement birth rate. The trend of late marriage, fewer births and population aging is rapidly changing the population structure.
The Department of Population forecasts that if the birth rate remains low, Vietnam will end its golden population period in 2036 and begin negative population growth from 2051. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Statistics believes that the population will continue to increase in the next few decades, but gradually slow down, peaking around 2059 and then entering a period of decline.
In 2025, the population sector implemented 11 targets, of which average life expectancy reached 74.7 years, exceeding the set target. However, the sex ratio at birth is still at 111 boys per 100 girls, significantly higher than the natural balance.
Target to bring the sex ratio at birth below 109 by 2030
The Government aims to bring the sex ratio at birth down to below 109 boys/100 girls by 2030 and below 107 by 2035, in the National Target Program on Population and Development for the period 2026-2035, with a total capital of about 125,000 billion VND, focusing on improving population quality, modernizing grassroots healthcare and controlling gender imbalances at birth.
The Ministry of Health warns that Vietnam may simultaneously face "reduction in births, surplus men and shortage of women"; if the trend continues, there may be a surplus of about 1.5 million men of marriageable age in 2034 and 1.8 million in 2059, leading to many social consequences.
According to Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu - former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues, the most serious gender imbalance at birth is concentrated in the Red River Delta, in which many localities such as: Bac Ninh, Phu Tho and Hanoi recorded over 118 boys/100 girls.
According to Dr. Mai Xuan Phuong - former Deputy Director of the Department of Communication - Education (Population Department, Ministry of Health), the main reason is that the ideology of valuing men over women still exists; in the context of few children in families, the pressure to have a son to carry on the family line makes some people choose to determine the gender of the fetus or intervene during pregnancy, increasing gender imbalance at birth.
Tightening sanctions, supporting families to have daughters
The Ministry of Health proposed many solutions in the draft Population Law, including revoking the practicing certificate of a doctor who reveals the fetal gender and increasing the penalty for the act of choosing the fetal gender to a maximum of 100 million VND.
Along with handling violations, management agencies should study policies to provide financial or in-kind support for families having only daughters, especially in rural areas and vulnerable groups. Some localities such as: Hai Phong, Ca Mau have implemented and initially recorded positive results.
According to Dr. Mai Xuan Phuong, to sustainably reduce gender imbalance at birth, Vietnam needs to simultaneously improve the legal framework and strengthen the supervision of fetal sex identification services; build a warning, monitoring and early intervention system in localities with high gender ratios; and promote communication to change perceptions about gender equality, eliminate the ideology of valuing men over women and affirm the value of girls.
Accelerate the Project to control gender imbalance at birth
The Ministry of Health is also promoting the completion of the Project on Controlling Gender Disproportion at Birth in the 2026-2035 Period and strives to submit it to the Government for promulgation in September 2026, sooner than planned.
According to Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen, the development of the project aims to concretize the Party's guidelines and the State's legal policies on population work, gender equality and sustainable development, and at the same time create a synchronous legal corridor to gradually bring the sex ratio at birth back to a natural balance.
According to the roadmap, in the period 2026-2030, Vietnam strives to reduce the sex ratio at birth to below 109 boys/100 girls. In the period 2031-2035, this index continues to decrease to below 107 boys/100 girls, towards a natural balance of 104-106 boys/100 girls, contributing to ensuring a reasonable population structure and creating a foundation for sustainable development.
