After nearly 18 months of spectacular growth, gold prices today (June 3) are at 3,386 USD/ounce, 65% higher than the starting price in early 2024.
It is not easy to determine the time to buy or sell gold. But in the investment world, there are strong enough signals to make the market fluctuate, especially when they come from leading agencies such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) or the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And this June, 3 major events are being seen as factors that could shake world gold prices.
The first doors opened on June 6, when the US announced the latest jobs report. In the context of the US economy being assessed as recovering positively, if the unemployment rate continues to decrease, investors' risk-off sentiment may ease. At that time, cash flow tends to withdraw from safe-haven assets such as gold, pushing gold prices down slightly.
A short-term correction, if any, could create a rare opportunity for those who are still hiding to buy gold at good prices.
Just a few days later, on June 11, all eyes were on the May inflation report. For the past three consecutive months, US inflation has been moving in a downward direction. If this trend continues and approaches the 2% mark - the target of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) - analysts predict that gold prices could be under great pressure.
But if there is a sudden increase in the consumer price index, the market could well see gold prices set a new record, especially as concerns about currency depreciation return.
The high tide is likely to come on June 18, when the Fed's monetary policy meeting ends. Although the possibility of interest rate cuts in this period is very low (only about 2% according to CME's forecast tool), the market cannot take it lightly. Because the Fed does not always create terrestrials through actions, sometimes, just one word at a press conference is enough to make global investors change their strategy in a flash.
In the relationship between gold and interest rates, every Fed statement on monetary policy orientation is likely to push gold prices up or down.
For those holding gold, this is the time to closely monitor the market, ready for strategic adjustments. As for those waiting for the opportunity to buy, an adjustment, if it happens, it could be the door that does not last too long. Those who grasp the signal at the right time can be ahead of the market.
