The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued the first warning bulletin for the new tropical depression on June 19.
Regarding the path of this tropical depression, the JMA gave a similar assessment to the US GFS model but different from many other forecasting agencies and models. Accordingly, the tropical depression will move in a west-northwest direction in the next 5 days.
The latest forecast of the GFS model shows that this system may go straight through the northernmost part of Luzon Island of the Philippines, near the Batanes archipelago, on June 26 with strong typhoon intensity. This scenario may also increase the activity of the southwest monsoon in the Philippines from the beginning of next week.
Meanwhile, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the European ECMWF model and the forecast model of DeepMind (Google) offer different scenarios. These agencies and models believe that the new storm has shifted direction to the north since June 23, still maintaining strong intensity and moving towards Japan's Ryukyu Islands.
The final direction of movement of this system will depend heavily on the subtropical high pressure in the north, as well as the possibility of forming another subtropical high pressure area in the East Sea. These factors may cause the storm to change direction and move northward.
Because currently forecasting agencies and digital models still give different scenarios, the reliability of trajectory forecasts is still low. Therefore, current predictions may still change in the coming days.
JMA forecasters expect the new tropical depression to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on the evening of June 20 or the morning of June 21 with strong tropical storm intensity.
Similarly, according to typhoon news, the latest low pressure on June 19 by PAGASA, a tropical depression is operating in the east of the Visayas region and may enter PAR from the evening of June 20.
Currently, the center of the tropical depression is about 2,085km east of Eastern Visayas. The system has maximum sustained winds of about 55 km/h near the center, gusts up to 70 km/h and is moving westward at a speed of about 15 km/h.
Weather expert Obet Badrina of PAGASA said: "The system has not yet affected the Philippines, but we are closely monitoring because it is likely to enter the Philippine forecast area on the evening of June 20 or early morning of June 21.
According to PAGASA, the tropical depression is forecast to continue to strengthen and may reach typhoon level on the evening of June 21 when moving northwest over Philippine waters. When entering PAR, the system will be named Francisco.
The Philippine meteorological agency believes that the possibility of the storm making landfall directly on the mainland is still relatively low.
