CNN's latest storm news says that the Atlantic hurricane season has had more than 3 quiet weeks since deadly superstorm Beryl made landfall in Texas, USA.
Dry air and dust have helped keep storms away from the Atlantic Ocean since superstorm No. 3 Beryl. However, a complex area of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean is expected to encounter favorable atmospheric conditions this weekend then strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
The newly formed storm will be storm number 4 of this year's Atlantic hurricane season and is named Debby.
It is forecast that the system that is likely to strengthen into a storm will move along the northern Caribbean until August 2 before appearing near the Bahamas or Florida, USA this weekend. The path through the Caribbean will determine when this system is likely to strengthen into a No. 4 storm.
Storm forecasters noted that the system may not strengthen into a tropical depression or hurricane if it passes through the mountainous areas of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
The ability to strengthen into a storm will be enhanced if the system avoids those islands and features. Unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico could help this system strengthen as it moves here.
It is unclear which direction the weather system being closely watched by forecasters in the Atlantic Ocean will move. It is expected that a strong area of high pressure above the Atlantic Ocean could direct the storm from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the southeastern US coast by the end of the week.
August is the beginning of the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season because the ocean water is very hot, upper-level winds cause turbulence while the air is dry and dust gradually decreases.
However, during this year's hurricane season, temperatures across the Atlantic have been far from normal and have clearly demonstrated their ability to impact storms. Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record in early July in part because the Caribbean waters were as hot in July as they were at the peak of hurricane season. Currently, some parts of the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are hotter than normal for early October - a time when ocean temperatures are at their maximum.
Unusually high ocean temperatures are one of the reasons why many hurricane forecasters expect the 2024 hurricane season to be so intense. Other reasons include La Nina forming, less wind shear in the upper Atlantic.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a near-average start, with Hurricane Alberto forming in mid-June - a typical time for the first storm of the season. However, the normal course of hurricane season quickly disappeared when Typhoon Beryl formed.
The US National Hurricane Center notes that the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season usually forms around August 11 and the first category 3 or higher storm appears around September 1. However, storm Beryl broke both of these milestones in July.
In addition to hurricanes Alberto and Beryl, this year's hurricane season , the Atlantic basin also recorded the short-lived tropical storm Chris.
