According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, a key factor to consider for the 2024 typhoon season is the ongoing change in ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which will have a significant impact on the number of tropical storms developing in the Eastern and Northwestern Pacific from August onwards.
ENSO is the irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warm phase of sea temperature is called El Niño, while the cold phase is called La Niña.
According to the Northwest Pacific Typhoon page, signs of the La Niña phenomenon are approaching in August, with the latest manifestation being the expansion of cold water in the Eastern Pacific region, gradually spreading towards the Western Pacific.
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific region have been gradually decreasing in recent days, currently at -0.265.
The development potential of La Niña at the peak of the typhoon season will significantly impact the number of tropical storms that will develop.
In a typical La Niña pattern, besides preventing storms in the Eastern Pacific, storm development is also hindered in the central Pacific and most of the Western Pacific, except for the South China Sea, which sees an increase in storms during La Niña.
With the rapid phase transition from El Niño to La Niña in a short period of 2024, and the natural disasters occurring across regions in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan (China) recently, it serves as an early warning of extreme, unusual, and unpredictable weather phenomena, accompanied by a series of successive natural disasters that may occur in the South China Sea and Northwestern Pacific regions for the remainder of 2024.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) stated that La Niña could cause storms to make landfall faster. PAGASA warned that with storms near the mainland, there will be less preparation time.
Also according to the Northwest Pacific Typhoon page, the Northwest Pacific typhoon basin is forecast to have about 15-20 named storms from now until the end of 2024, with 2-4 of them potentially intensifying into super typhoons with winds of 241 km/h or more. The majority of these storms will be concentrated in the eastern Philippines and the South China Sea.
In the South China Sea region, the number of storms and tropical depressions from now until the end of the year could account for 50-60% of the total number in the Northwest Pacific, approximately 9-12 storms and tropical depressions, with 4-6 of them potentially impacting the mainland directly. There is a possibility of super typhoons occurring in the region from September to October 2024.
