The risk of a military conflict between Iran and Israel is raising serious concerns about the global energy market. In the context of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, officials and experts have warned of the possibility of a spike in world oil prices if the situation continues to escalate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said in a phone call with his German counterpart Johann Wadephul that if major military operations occurred, oil prices could increase by 200 to 300 USD per barrel. He warned that this would escalate inflation in European countries and disrupt oil exports from producing countries such as Iraq.
One of the main reasons for market concerns is the risk of Iran closing the Hormuz Strait - a strategic shipping route that carries about 20% of global oil. Iranian parliamentarian and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mr. Esmail Kousari, said that Tehran is seriously considering this in response to Israeli attacks.
If the Strait is blocked, the world could lose about 5 million barrels of oil per day from the Gulf region and Iraq, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister. Experts warn that this could cause a major shock to global supply and cause oil prices to increase to a record level. JPMorgan estimates that in the serious scenario, oil prices could increase to $130/barrel, while some other analysts predict a much higher increase.
On the day of the first attacks, Brent oil prices increased by 7%, to 74.23 USD/barrel. Although Israel has not directly attacked Iran's key oil exporters, many analysts believe that the next airstrikes could cause serious losses to supply.
In Russia, Chairman of the Federal Council's Information Policy Committee, Mr. Aleksey Pushkov, said that the conflict between Iran and Israel could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, due to the risk of Iran blocking the Persian Gulf region.
The current situation poses a major challenge for oil consuming countries and puts the global energy market in a state of high vigilance.
