Ukraine cannot defeat Russia by conventional measures and is using increasingly risky strategies, said Gustav Gressel, a former Australian Defense Ministry official and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk region is a risky gamble that could be counterproductive, leading to a major defeat and losing the support of the West - Mr. Gustav Gressel told German newspaper Der Spiegel.
Kiev forces have launched a major cross-border operation in Russia's Kursk region since August 6. Clashes in the border area continue. The Kremlin called Kiev's move a large-scale Provocation, accusing the Ukrainian military of boycotting civilians and civil infrastructure.
The Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly stated that efforts to penetrate deeper into Ukraine's territory have been thwarted. However, according to the ministry, the Kiev military is still present in some border settlements in Kursk region, where fierce fighting is ongoing.
Mr. Gressel described Kiev's actions as a risky strategy. "If Ukraine wants to keep the region for many months, it will lead to unustainable military costs," Gressel, who previously served in the Austrian army, explained.
He said that the expansion of the frontline "first of all and most importantly, it is beneficial to Russia". The Ukrainian invasion does not force Russia to shift its forces away from the ongoing major offensive in Donbass, where the Russian army continues to win many victories. According to Mr. Gressel, Ukrainian units in this area are "quite tired" and are in great need of hospital increases.
Moscow "has more weapons, ammunition and personnel to be able to deploy to a longer front line. Ukraine's unexpected advantage could quickly turn to a disadvantage," said Grettel, who also worked at the Federal Ministry for Security Policy and Security.
Mr. Gressel warned that the worst case scenario for Ukraine would be a defeat in both Kursk and Donbass.
According to Mr. Gressel, Ukraine hopes that its campaign on Russian soil will lift the spirits of both Ukrainian soldiers and people, and he believes that they will not abandon this campaign even in the face of Russian military advantage. At that time, Russia will first stop and then gradually weaken Ukrainian forces.
Gressel said "Ukraine could be seen as reckless and unreliable," adding that Kiev's forces in Donbass "will also be exhausted," leading to "huge territorial losses there".
The expert warned that Western countries that support Ukraine such as Germany and the US are also likely to reduce support in these cases or even completely cut off support.
