The latest weather forecast on August 26 from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that the La Nina phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean may appear as early as next September.
"Preview models show the likelihood of a short-term La Nina, which is expected to increase from the September-November rainy season to the October-November rainy season," PAGASA said in its bulletin.
La Nina is a cold phase of the Southern fluctuations - El Nino (ENSO), characterized by colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly lower than normal during the La Nina period.
According to PAGASA, the ENSO neutral phase that has been monitored continuously in the tropical Pacific is likely to last until October. However, climate models show that the likelihood of short-term La Nina phenomena is increasing between September and December.
La Nina is associated with higher than normal rainfall in most areas of the Philippines and higher-than-average storms and tropical depressions at the end of the year.
PAGASA said that the La Nina warning of this agency was issued when the possibility of La Nina developing within the next 6 months is 55% or more and the conditions are suitable for the formation of this climate model.
Before PAGASA's latest La Nina forecast on August 26, La Nina conditions had appeared in the first few months of 2024 and early 2025.
