The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts that between two and eight tropical storms may form within or enter the Philippine forecast area (PAR) from January to June 2025.
January, February, March and April can have 1 storm each while May and June can have one or two disturbances.
During February, a low pressure system is expected to develop south of the PAR forecast area between now and February 6. This low pressure system will continue to move northwest and expand in size during the week of February 7 to 13.
If this depression strengthens into a storm and enters the Philippine PAR forecast area, it will be named Auring - the first name in PAGASA's list of tropical storm names.
The months of January to May are considered the quiet period for tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific basin, where the Philippines and the South China Sea are located.
Along with the tropical storm forecast, PAGASA also released a list of tropical storm names that will be used for the 2025 typhoon season.
Common names include: Auring, Bising, Crising, Dante, Emong, Fabian, Gorio, Huaning, Isang, Jacinto, Kiko, Lannie, Mirasol, Nando, Opong, Paolo, Quedan, Ramil, Salome, Tino, Uwan, Verbena , Wilma, Yasmin, Zoraida
The names Jacinto, Mirasol and Opong are replacements for Jolina, Maring and Odette, which were retired after causing more than 1 billion pesos ($17 million) in damage to agriculture and infrastructure during their onslaught in 2021.
In 2024, there are 17 storms within the Philippines forecast area, 6 of which consecutively hit Northern Luzon in just 4 weeks: Severe Tropical Storm Kristine, Super Typhoon Leon, Typhoon Marce, Typhoon Nika, Typhoon Ofel, and Super Typhoon Pepito.
For the first time, a tropical system that did not enter the PAR was also given a local name.
PAGASA has named Romina the tropical depression that formed over the southern West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), directly affecting Palawan's Kalayaan Islands, which is outside the PAR - which was identified by the World Meteorological Organization in the 1960s.
At least five storm names from 2024 could be canceled: Aghon, Carina, Enteng, Julian and Kristine.
PAGASA will cancel a tropical storm's name if the system causes at least 300 deaths or at least 1 billion pesos ($17 million) in damage to agriculture and infrastructure.
Aghon, Enteng and Julian caused damages of $17.6 million, $44 million and $30 million respectively.
Based on data from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council's situation reports, cumulative damage from all storms in 2024 is estimated at nearly $686 million.
Total damage from hurricanes Butchoy and Carina, Kristine and Leon amounted to more than $171 million and $308 million, respectively.
298 deaths, 232 injuries and 60 missing were also reported, with Kristine and Leon recording 159 deaths, and Butchoy and Carina recording 48 deaths.
The Philippines is one of the most typhoon-hit countries in the world. According to the Asian Disaster Reduction Center, the Philippines experiences an average of 20 tropical storms each year, including devastating super typhoons. Many of these storms enter the South China Sea.
