The Atlantic hurricane season is officially over in two months. However, according to the latest hurricane report from the New York Times, hurricane experts warn that the 2024 hurricane season is not over yet, and could even last until December.
In October and November, the typhoon season typically calms down. When charted, a typical hurricane season is like a high mountain with a strong active peak in early September.
However, seasonal hurricane experts like Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University, USA, believe that this year will have "3 hurricane seasons": "Based start, super quiet peak and strong end". When charted, the 2024 hurricane season will be like two peaks with a valley in between.
In early July, Hurricane Beryl, the earliest major hurricane in the history of the season, made landfall in the United States, causing major damage in Houston. Then Hurricane Debby flooded Florida, Georgia and the Carolina coast in early August. However, the Atlantic Ocean has calmed down since Ernesto. No new storms formed for weeks at what was supposed to be the peak of the season.
Then, almost overnight, in mid-September, the peaceful storm season ended. Hurricane Francine formed and hit Louisiana. Several other storms followed in the mid- Atlantic, including Gordon, Kirk and Leslie. But the worst was Hurricane Helene last week. Helene rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico, hitting the Florida coast as the strongest storm ever to hit the state's Big Bend. Helene's pouring rain led to widespread devastation.
As Hurricane Leslie formed this week, the season officially became an average one, in terms of the number of storms. However, 66% of the named storms strengthened into hurricanes. Therefore, an average season can still have an above-average number of storms.
There are many factors for the 2024 hurricane season that surprise weather forecasters, according to the New York Times.
Typically, in October, hurricanes are more likely to form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico than in the eastern Atlantic. But Kirk and Leslie formed off the coast of Africa and moved across the Atlantic this week.
"The weather conditions that make the 2024 hurricane season above normal: Warm sea surface temperatures, the presence of La Nina, are still there," said Matthew Rosencrans, a hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
In a typical hurricane season, there can be three storms in October and one in November. Therefore, forecasters do not rule out the possibility of 5-6 new storms in the coming time.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30. However, seasonal hurricane forecaster Rosencrans warns that during La Nina years, with warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, the hurricane season could last until December.
The longest typhoon season has occurred since 2005 when Typhoon Epsilon formed in late November and lasted until the first week of December, followed by Tropical Storm Zeta formed at the end of the year and lasted until the first week of 2006.
