"The NHC has never predicted a depression to become a major hurricane within 60 hours. The entire forecast is also substantially faster than any 36-hour and 48-hour forecast for a tropical depression," Sam Lillo, meteorologist and software engineer at DTN Weather, said of Helene.
According to John Cangialosi, one of the NHC's senior hurricane specialists, Helene's forecast of "a 70-knot increase in wind speed in 72 hours on September 23 is one of the fastest forecasts" for a potential tropical storm.
"There's a reason for making that forecast. We're trying to get ahead of the possibility of rapid intensification before it hits Florida," Cangialosi said.
Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall along or near Florida’s Big Bend on Friday evening local time, bringing winds, rain and storm surge across the Southeast, but the exact path and timing of landfall are still subject to change. Helene would be the fourth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year and the fifth to hit Florida since 2022.
Among the computer models used to forecast the storm, some show Helene continuing to strengthen and could plummet to its lowest central pressure ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC and the National Weather Service typically advise residents in a hurricane's path to plan for a higher intensity than forecast, and Helene is currently forecast to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on the 5-point Safir-Simpson hurricane scale, with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). Some models even predict Helene will make landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm.
Thousands of people have been forced to evacuate in Florida as Helene is expected to become the strongest hurricane to hit the US in more than a year, CNN reported.
The storm formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on the morning of September 24 and rapidly strengthened over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Flood warnings have been issued for more than 20 million people from Florida to the southern Appalachians. The Big Bend area faces the most severe storm surge, which could reach up to 15 feet.
Helene comes as Florida's Big Bend region is still recovering from a number of recent storms. Hurricane Debby hit the area in early August as a Category 1 storm, and recovery efforts are still underway.
