In an update on September 23, the US Climate Prediction Center said that La Nina is expected to officially form between now and November. The chance of La Nina continuing through the winter (December 2024 to February 2025) is 77%.
Water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have remained steady near their long-term average over the past month, defying the cooling trend expected under emerging La Nina conditions.
La Nina is seen as a potential driver for this year's hurricane season. La Nina phases are typically accompanied by reduced wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic basin, creating more favorable conditions for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is this week and officially, the season lasts until November 30.
Even a late La Nina or a slightly earlier La Nina could combine with higher-than-average water temperatures and other factors to create a late hurricane season in some coastal areas, said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University.
In the Northwest Pacific and the East Sea, the ENSO phenomenon (transition from El Nino to La Nina) is still in a neutral state, from October to December it is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60-70%.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, under La Nina conditions, from October to December, storm/tropical depression activity in the East Sea is likely to occur at a level close to or higher than the average of many years (from 4 to 5 storms); in which the number of storms making landfall may be higher than the average of many years (1.9 storms) and concentrated in the Central region and southern provinces. Be on guard for the possibility of storms/tropical depressions forming right in the East Sea.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the potential development of La Nina at the peak of the typhoon season will have a major impact on the number of tropical storms.
PAGASA warned that La Nina could cause typhoons to make landfall faster, so with typhoons closer to land, there will be less time to prepare.
