In its September 23 update, the US Climate Prediction Center said La Nina is expected to officially form between now and November. The chance of La Nina continuing to occur throughout the winter (December 2024 to February 2025) is 77%.
Water temperatures in the central Pacific have remained steady near the long-term average over the past month rather than the expected cooling trend amid the rapidly developing La Nina.
La Nina is seen as a potential driver for this year's hurricane season. La Nina periods are often accompanied by wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic basin, creating more favorable conditions for tropical storms and hurricanes to thrive.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is this week and the season officially runs through November 30.
Even a late La Nina or a slightly earlier La Nina can combine with above-average water temperatures and other factors to create a late hurricane season in some coastal areas, says Dr Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University.
In the Northwest Pacific and East Sea, the ENSO phenomenon (the transition from El Nino to La Nina) is still in a neutral state, with the possibility of moving to La Nina state from October to December with a probability of 60-70%.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, under La Nina state, from October to December, storm/tropical depression activity in the East Sea is likely to appear at a level close to or higher than the average of many years (from 4 to 5 storms); in which the number of storms making landfall may be higher than the average of many years (1.9 storms) and concentrated in the Central region and the southern provinces. Beware of the possibility of storms/tropical depressions forming right in the East Sea.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the possibility of La Nina developing at the peak of the typhoon season will have a major impact on the number of tropical storms.
PAGASA warned that La Nina could make landfall faster, so there will be less time to prepare for storms close to land.
