According to the latest storm information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US, at 7:00 a.m. on September 23, the first low pressure area named 92W was near Hainan Island (China). Maximum sustained winds near the center of the depression are 35 km/h, moving west-northwest, south of China.
According to the JTWC's storm forecast, the possibility of low pressure area 92W strengthening into a tropical depression or storm in the next 24 hours is low.
Regarding the second low pressure named 93W, JTWC said the low pressure appeared right in the Gulf of Tonkin, with the strongest wind near the center of the low pressure being 35 km/h, likely approaching Central Vietnam.
The JTWC forecasts that the possibility of low pressure 93W strengthening into a tropical depression or storm in the next 24 hours is also low. On the same day, September 23, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasted that during the week of September 23-29, 2024, up to three low pressure areas are expected to appear near the Philippines.
Low pressure 1 (93W as designated by JTWC) has appeared in the PAGASA PMD forecast area (PAGASA Monitoring Domain), with the possibility of the low strengthening into a storm.
Low pressure 2 (92W as designated by the JTWC) will form in the northeastern part of the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR), with the possibility of strengthening from low to moderate.
Low pressure 3 is expected to appear east of the Philippine Tropical cylone Information Domain (TCID), with the possibility of strengthening into a tropical depression. During the week of September 30-October 6, two other low pressure areas are expected to appear near the Philippines. Low pressure 4 is expected to appear near the northeast of Luzon, moving west, with the possibility of strengthening into a tropical depression.
Low pressure 5 is expected to form north of the PAR, with the possibility of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm.
Meanwhile, according to the weather forecast of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in the past 24 hours (from 11:00 on September 22 to 11:00 on September 23), the mountainous and midland provinces of the North and the provinces from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue have had heavy rain, some places have had very heavy rain such as: Km46 100mm (Son La); Lung Van 147mm (Hoa Binh); Cho Trang 364mm (Nghe An); Khe Co 268mm (Ha Tinh); Trong Hoa 121mm (Quang Binh); Binh Dien 106mm hydropower plant (Thua Thien Hue)...
Soil moisture models show that some areas in the above provinces are nearly saturated (over 85%) or have reached a saturated state.
Warning of rain in the next period, in the next 3-6 hours, the mountainous provinces of the North will continue to have rain with common rainfall less than 10mm, some places over 20mm; The Northern Delta and midland provinces of the North and Thanh Hoa will have rain from 10-20mm, some places over 50mm; The provinces from Nghe An to Quang Binh will have rain from 20-40mm, some places over 80mm; Thua Thien Hue from 10-30mm, some places over 50mm.
In the next 6 hours, there is a risk of flash floods on small rivers and streams, landslides on steep slopes in many districts. The warning level of natural disaster risk due to flash floods, landslides, and land subsidence due to heavy rain or water flow is level 1.
