World gold prices are currently trading around 4,250 - 4,310 USD/ounce, but according to the latest forecast from ANZ bank, gold prices may plummet in the second half of 2026 when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) ends the monetary policy easing cycle.
According to analysts, the current gold fever is mainly due to geopolitical concerns, the public debt crisis and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates soon, causing global investors to pour money into precious metals as a safe haven. A 0.1% weakening of the US dollar - to a one-week low - makes gold more attractive to buyers outside the US.
Bank of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) forecasts gold prices to continue to increase strongly to about 4,400 USD/ounce by the end of 2025, peaking nearly 4,600 USD/ounce in mid-2026. However, the market could see a major correction later in the second half of 2026, as the Fed ends its interest rate cutting cycle and monetary policy returns to neutral status.
Increasing concerns about the Feds independence, political instability in the US, trade tensions and the burden of public debt will continue to keep gold in the strategic portfolio of investors, ANZ said.
However, the bank also warned that if the Fed returns to a hawkish stance, or if the US economy grows stronger than expected, gold prices could fall significantly in late 2026.
Since the beginning of the year, gold has increased by 61%, the strongest increase since the global financial crisis in 2008.
According to analysts, the main driver comes from: A weak US dollar, making gold - valued in USD - cheaper for international investors.
falling US bond yields have caused cash flow to shift from the debt market to safe-haven assets.
Global instability is escalating, from the Middle East, Ukraine to East Asia, causing physical demand for gold to increase sharply.
An expert from State Street Markets (Boston) commented that gold is currently a rare asset that is both safe and profitable. But that does not mean that the increase will last forever.
Along with gold, silver prices are also expected to increase sharply. ANZ said silver could reach $27.5 an ounce by mid-2026, before being similarly affected by the Fed's policy cycle.
Experts warn that although gold prices may still increase in the short term, the risk of correction is increasing. According to an analyst in Singapore, the gold market has now reflected almost all expectations of a Fed rate cut. When the easing cycle ends, speculative cash flow can withdraw quickly, dragging gold prices down deep.
In fact, this week (October 20-26, 2025), analysts said that gold is likely to enter a period of strong fluctuations due to many investors taking profits at high prices after a long period of price increases.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading around 151 - 151.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold ring price: 155.5 - 158.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
