Goldman Sachs investment bank has just sent a clear message to investors: The plunge in gold prices in March 2026 does not change the upward outlook for the whole year.
Gold prices fell more than 10% in March - the sharpest drop since 2013. However, Goldman Sachs still maintains its forecast that gold prices could reach 5,400 USD/ounce by the end of 2026.
Currently, spot world gold prices fluctuate around 4,676 USD/ounce, significantly lower than the nearly 5,600 USD peak set at the end of January. However, according to Goldman, this adjustment is only short-term.
In the latest report, experts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas emphasized that long-term investors - the main driving force behind the gold rally - have not yet left the market.
According to them, cash flow into gold currently mainly comes from private investors seeking shelter from macroeconomic risks such as fiscal deficits, policy instability and doubts about the independence of central banks.
Goldman Sachs even believes that the risk for the current forecast is still "leaning towards increase", as global instability may cause investors to continue to increase their gold holdings.
Three major drivers supporting gold prices
According to Goldman Sachs, gold's outlook for 2026 is based on three main pillars.
The first is purchasing power from central banks. Emerging economies are stepping up reserve diversification, reducing dependence on the USD. Goldman forecasts that central banks may buy about 60 tons of gold/month this year.
Notably, the People's Bank of China has maintained a continuous gold buying streak for 15 months up to the beginning of 2026. This trend is seen as a strong signal showing the increasing role of gold in national reserves.
The second is capital flow from gold ETF funds. Since the beginning of 2025, ETF funds in the West have added about 500 tons of gold - an increase far beyond what can be explained by just the interest rate factor.
Goldman forecasts the Fed will continue to ease monetary policy in 2026, with an interest rate cut of about 0.5 percentage points. This move could support gold prices by about 120 USD/ounce.
Third is investors' defensive sentiment against global instability. As geopolitical and economic risks increase, gold continues to be seen as a "safe haven".
Long-term prospects are still bright
Despite experiencing a strong correction, Goldman Sachs believes that the gold market is still in a long-term upward cycle. Foundation factors such as reserve demand, investment capital flows and monetary policy are still supporting this precious metal.
The message of this bank is quite clear: Short-term fluctuations do not change the big picture. For long-term investors, gold is still a strategic asset in the context of a volatile world.
If the forecasts become reality, the 5,400 USD/ounce level is not only a target, but could also become a new milestone for the global gold market in 2026.
Regarding domestic gold prices in the Vietnamese market, SJC gold bar prices at 9:00 AM on April 4 traded at 171-174.5 million VND/tael (buying - selling). Bao Tin Minh Chau 9999 gold ring price traded at 169.5 - 172.5 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
