Russian oil and gas revenue in November could fall by about 35% compared to the same period in 2024, to 520 billion rubles (about 6.4 billion USD) due to lower oil prices and stronger rubles.
Oil and gas are Russia's most important source of revenue, accounting for about 1/4 of the total federal budget revenue.
Russia's oil and gas revenue in November is also forecast to decrease by 7.4% compared to October this year, excluding cycle taxes.
This rather deep decline has caused difficulties for Russia, in the context of the country's sharp increase in defense and security spending since the conflict broke out in Ukraine in February 2022.
In the first 11 months of this year, Russia's oil and gas revenue is forecast to decrease by 22% to 8,000 billion rubles (about 98.6 billion USD), in line with the 2025 target.
According to Reuters calculations, Russian oil prices used for tax calculation have decreased from 68.3 USD/barrel in the period from January to November 2024 to 57.3 USD/barrel in the same period in 2025.
At the same time, the ruble increased, from 91.7 rubles to 1 USD in 2024 to 81.1 rubles/USD this year. The Russian Finance Ministry will release its official estimate on December 3.
The Russian Finance Ministry initially expected to collect 10,940 billion rubles (about 134.9 billion USD) from oil and gas this year, but falling oil prices forced the agency to lower its forecast to 8,650 billion rubles (about 106.6 billion USD last month). Last year, Russian oil and gas revenue reached 11,130 billion rubles (about 137.3 billion USD).
Oilprice forecasts that oil and gas will still be Russia's largest budget source. This month, the discount on Urals, Russia's main crude oil, expanded to its highest level since May 2023 after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian producers and exporters such as Rosneft and Lukoil.
Last week, Urals oil prices for delivery at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk fell to just 36.61 USD/barrel, the lowest level in nearly 3 years.
Urals oil prices for deliveries from Novorossiysk and Baltic ports have fallen sharply since the US announced sanctions in late October. The decrease in urals compared to international Brent oil expanded to 23.52 USD/barrel in mid-November. This growing gap continues to weigh on Russia's oil and gas revenue.
Russia's budget revenue in October fell 27% year-on-year as international oil prices fell, sanctions tightened and the ruble rose.
Last week, the US Treasury Department's Foreign Assets Administration said that initial analysis showed that sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil "are being effective in pulling down Russian oil prices", thereby reducing the budget for Russia to serve the conflict in Ukraine.
