A report submitted to the UK House of Representatives' Environmental Audit Commission is heating up the international community every hour: Russian research vessels are believed to have discovered 511 billion barrels of oil under the Weddell Sea, a sea area that the UK claims sovereignty but is also disputed by Chile and Argentina. If confirmed, this could be the largest oil field ever reported on Earth.
Shocking scale of discovery: double the known reserves of Saudi Arabia and more than 10 times the total output of the North Sea in the past half century.
According to Newsweek, Russia's surveys at the Weddell Sea are presented as scientific activities. However, geopolitical expert Klaus Dodds (Royal Holloway University, London) warned the UK parliament that the seismic data collected by Russia could be viewed as an exploration act, not a study, suggesting that this could be a preparation step for future resource exploitation.
Mr. Dodds emphasized that in the context of low Russia-Western relations after the Ukrainian conflict, this move could open up a period of increasingly open strategic competition in the South.
The Arctic Treaty, signed in 1959, which has been supported by 54 countries, stipulates that the ice continental is only for peaceful purposes and scientific research, absolutely prohibiting the exploitation of oil and gas and commercial minerals.
But in-depth Russian seismic surveys a technique commonly used to determine oil and gas structures have observers wondering whether Moscow will circumvent the law to collect data for future exploitation.
Although the British Foreign Ministry said Russia had only conducted scientific research, experts said the argument was unconvincing as the collected data overlapped with geological structures rich in hydrocarburids.
Information about the reserves of 511 billion barrels of oil was released in the context of many major powers accelerating their presence in the South.
Russia currently has five research stations on the ice continent, while China has just opened a fifth.
Both countries have rejected the proposal to establish marine reserves in 2022, a move seen by the West as a protection of long-term strategic interests.
As exploitable oil fields around the world are gradually depleted, harsh areas such as the Arctic and the South will have even greater appeal, not only for oil and gas, but also for gas, rare resources and control of future shipping routes.
The problem is further complicated by overlapping sovereignty claims: the UK, Argentina and Chile all claim ownership of the Weddell Sea. However, Russia, the US and many other countries have not recognized any such statements.
Worse, the Arctic treaty does not have a mechanism for enforcement. If a country chooses to ignore the spirit of the treaty, the international community can only exert diplomatic pressure.
The real test is whether the international community is ready to protect the treaty framework from silent but intentional erosion, warned Dodds.
