Hurricane Melissa formed in the Caribbean on October 21, becoming the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. According to US hurricane forecasters, Melissa could become a hurricane on October 24.
However, there is still significant uncertainty about the intensity and path of Shelter.
Meteorologists at the US National Hurricane Center said it is still unclear whether Shelters will turn more towards Haiti or Cuba, or the storm will turn towards Jamaica.
"There are forecasts for some slow intensifications over the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on October 24, with significantly stronger intensity this weekend," the National Hurricane Center's bulletin said.
Melvis is forecast to approach Jamaica and the southwest part of Haiti this weekend.
In the hurricane monitoring area in Haiti, the impact of Shelter is expected to start late on October 23, while tropical storm conditions could start in Jamaica late on October 23 or October 24.
Shelter is forecast to bring 127-254mm of rain to southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica through October 25.
51-102mm of rain is forecast for northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and western Jamaica through October 25. Cuba and Puerto Rico are also expected to see 25-76mm of rain through October 25. "Sweep and urban flooding are likely through at least October 25," the National Hurricane Center's bulletin said.
AccuWeather's latest hurricane bulletin says that Melissa will become a major hurricane in the Caribbean with strong winds and heavy rain causing flooding.
Shelter is strengthening in the Caribbean and is forecast to develop into a strong, slow-moving storm, causing significant flooding and strong winds that will destroy areas that have little tropical activity during this year's Atlantic hurricane season.
"The further melissa moves west, the greater the risk of affecting the United States. Moving more westward will help Hispaniola avoid heavy rains and flooding," said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's Chief Meteorologist.
"The current low chance of Melissa making landfall directly in the US is low, but it could still happen if the tropical system moves west of the Caribbean," AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva added.
Hurricane Melissa is forecast to stay in the Caribbean for many days. If the center of the storm continues to operate at sea for a while, it could become a major storm. The current storm's gusts of Melissa are 160 km/h as the center of the storm remains off the coast of Jamaica. If Melissa moves inland for Jamaica, maximum sustained winds could be much greater.
AccuWeather forecasters predict that Melissa will become a major hurricane and reach Category 4 or 5 intensity according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, if the storm moves over the waters of the western Caribbean for some time.
