The latest storm news on October 22 shows that storm Melissa is moving slowly in the Caribbean Sea with winds of up to 85 km/h.
Initial forecasts show that the latest Atlantic storm could intensify rapidly.
Google DeepMind's pilot weather model shows that almost all forecasts have pushed Melissa to a Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of over 250 km/h, which could cause catastrophic damage.
The potential path of storm No. 13 Melissa has been highlighted in a spaghetti model (a collection of multiple forecast storm trajectories) shared by meteorologist Ryan Maue - former chief scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results show that almost all scenarios show that Melissa will strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane.
The model shows the most intense storm's path starting about 480km south of Haiti. The storm is expected to move west at a speed of 20 to 24 km/h, heading towards the western Caribbean, approaching southwest Haiti and Jamaica.
From 24 to 27 October, Shelter is forecast to slow down, turn northwest and maintain activity near the Cayman Islands, southwest Jamaica and Cuba, where warm ocean waters could continue to strengthen into a Category 3 to Category 5 hurricane.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC)'s hurricane bulletin on October 21 warned that computer models are not unified on the forecast path of the storm that formed on October 20. Some models show Melissa turning northeast, while others predict the storm could stop or head west.
However, some spaghetti models also show a dangerous approach to Florida, and US warnings have yet to escape the risk of being affected by the storm.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue added that the main model of ECMWF (a highly appreciated model of Europe) also shows that Shelter could strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane, or even stronger, as it moves through warm waters southwest of Jamaica in the western Caribbean.
After the US National Hurricane Center released its first forecast for the area affected by Shelters, WCCB Charlotte weather forecaster Donald Mengel in North Carolina said the forecast area "suggests the nightmare of forecasting this storm."
However, wind shear and dry air may limit the development of Shelter. Therefore, many forecasters predict that Melissa will strengthen slowly.
Overall, the intensity of Melissa's forecast will depend on the path of the storm, and forecasters in the US are still uncertain about the path of the latest storm of the 2025 hurricane season.
