The latest storm and low pressure information from the US National Hurricane Center on October 21 said that low pressure 98L is active in the Caribbean Sea, where some of the warmest coastal waters are located, leading to the possibility of a very severe strengthening.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predict a 70% chance of the depression strengthening into a hurricane this week. The next storm on the 2025 hurricane season list is Hurricane Melissa.
The low pressure is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands from October 20. The low pressure is forecast to move westward until October 22. The path of the potential depression into Hurricane Melissa is then expected to become more unpredictable. The system could move north, near the Dominican Republic or Haiti over the weekend or could continue west toward Central America.
However, due to weak winds in the atmosphere, the latest low pressure in the Atlantic may move slowly, increasing the likelihood of a long hold near land, extending the time it will affect the areas approaching the system.
While the possibility of the United States being hit by potential hurricane Shelter is unlikely, forecasters in the United States have not ruled out the scenario.
The path and intensity of the storm will become clearer by the end of the week as the storm forms and the center of the storm is determined.
Currently, forecast models point to a number of possible scenarios: The storm will form and move north toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic; The storm will form and move west toward Nicaragua or Honduras; and the third scenario is the storm heading toward Cuba, the Bahamas and/or Florida, USA.
If the first scenario occurs, heavy rains are forecast to cause flooding, strong winds and dangerous rough seas across Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico this weekend.
If a second scenario occurs, the latest storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to hit Central America early next week.
This year's Atlantic hurricane season has produced 12 named storms, just below the average of 14. Melissa will be the 13th storm of this year's hurricane season. Of the storms that have formed in 2025, only Chantal made landfall in North Carolina in July.
There have been three major storms, Category 3 or more, this year: Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto. Hurricanes Erin and Humberto reached Category 5.
For the first time in a decade, until now this time of year, no hurricane has made landfall in the US.
According to reliable weather models, no more storms are expected immediately following the potential storm Melissa.
Although the likelihood of tropical storms tends to decrease significantly in November, the warm Caribbean waters near record levels and the La Nina phenomenon in the Pacific could still increase the risk of storms appearing this year.
