Forecast of when storms will develop in a rapid manner

Khánh Minh |

The US National Hurricane Center predicts when storms will accelerate again.

The Atlantic hurricane season is currently in a quiet period after opening in mid-June with three named Alberto, Chris and Beryl.

Of these, Beryl has broken all historical records for early season hurricanes, becoming the earliest hurricane of the season.

Beryl rapidly strengthened faster than any other storm recorded at the start of the season as its winds increased by 104 km/h in just 24 hours.

The storm took advantage of the extremely warm waters and eventually strengthened into the earliest Category 5 super typhoon on record in the Atlantic Ocean - one of the key milestones that no storm in early July had achieved.

The US National Hurricane Center's hurricane forecast shows that there will be no tropical developments anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic for at least the next 7 days.

If there is a time to book an outing during the storm season, it is this time, the second half of July.

There are several reasons why storms are temporarily calming in the current period.

First, in terms of climate, now is the time to transition to storms originating from Africa and taking many days to cross the Atlantic.

Second, Sahara dust is reaching its peak, overflowing into the Atlantic basin, hindering the development of the storm. The thick, hot, dry air mass of Sahara dust depletes deep moisture, while the dust can also reflect sunlight, slightly cooling the oceans. These factors can limit thunderstorms - the cause of tropical storms and typhoons.

Stronger winds in Sahara dust also increase wind shear, hampering the development of the storm.

This year, there is also the third thing, Madden-Julian fluctuations or MJO.

MJO is the biggest contributor to seasonal fluctuations in the tropical atmosphere. It is a large-scale link between atmospheric circulation and deep tropical convection.

MJO is a dynamic model that spreads eastward through the atmosphere over the warm ocean sections of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Each MJO cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days, which can strengthen or prevent storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the focus of the hurricane season is from late August to October - with 82% of the season's activity typically occurring during this period. From August, MJO will move back to a more favorable location for storms to develop.

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