The US Climate Prediction Center said that there is a 60% chance that the La Nina climate phenomenon will transition to the neutral state ENSO in the period April-April 2026, before it can move towards El Nino conditions. The neutral state is likely to last throughout the summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
According to the US weather forecasting agency, atmospheric anomalies have weakened due to short-term fluctuations, although still showing signs of La Nina.
Low-level west wind abnormalities appear in the western equatorial Pacific region, while high-level west wind abnormalities continue in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific regions" - the bulletin stated.
La Nina is part of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, directly affecting sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific regions.
La Nina often causes seawater temperatures to be colder, increasing the risk of floods and droughts, factors that can greatly affect agricultural production.
When ENSO is in a neutral state, seawater temperature is close to the average level, helping the weather to be more stable and can create favorable conditions for crop yields.
Mr. Jason Nicholls - chief international forecasting expert at AccuWeather - commented: "There are signs that La Nina is weakening and neutral ENSO may return in the next few months.
According to him, the transition to El Nino may begin at the end of spring.
He also warned that drought has begun to appear in some areas of southeastern Australia, and if El Nino forms, drought conditions could become more severe, causing difficulties for the next crop.
Mr. Donald Keeney - agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather - said: "As La Nina weakens, Argentina may have more rain, while the North-Central Brazil region tends to be drier. Southeast Asia is also likely to have less rain as summer enters.
In early 2026, the Southern Hemisphere recorded record heat waves and widespread wildfires. Scientists warn extreme temperatures may continue.
Climate change combined with the La Nina cycle caused severe flooding in southern Africa at the end of December and early January, killing about 200 people and affecting hundreds of thousands.
Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency said that there is a 60% chance that El Nino will appear in the summer, a 50% chance it will occur in the spring, and a 50% chance that climate conditions will remain at a normal level.
