According to analyst Michael Hsueh of Deutsche Bank, gold prices are forecast to reach 4,300 USD/ounce in Q3/2026, down more than 20% compared to previous forecasts. Gold prices in the last 3 months of the year are forecast to be at 4,800 USD/ounce, 17% lower than the old estimate.
However, both of these new forecast levels are still significantly higher than the current price of about 4,140 USD/ounce, meaning that Deutsche Bank still expects gold prices to increase in the near future, but the level of optimism has decreased sharply.
Deutsche Bank's move to lower the forecast comes after Goldman Sachs last week also lowered its year-end gold price forecast by another 500 USD/ounce, to 4,900 USD/ounce, as the bank no longer believes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year.
Gold prices fell more than 11% this quarter. Conflicts in the Middle East initially caused energy prices to rise sharply, thereby raising expectations that monetary policy would continue to tighten.
At the most recent policy meeting, Fed officials decided to keep interest rates unchanged but signaled increasing support for the possibility of interest rate hikes in the future. At the same time, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh pledged to restore price stability.
The market's re-adjustment of expectations for the Fed, along with the US economic data continuing to be positive, is the main reason for the fall in gold prices, analyst Michael Hsueh pointed out.
Deutsche Bank forecasts gold prices at 4,800 USD/ounce in Q4/2026 based on the assumption that the Fed will continue to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if the Fed raises interest rates 3-4 times more, gold prices could fall to around 3,800 USD/ounce.
Meanwhile, in China, the fact that domestic gold prices are lower than gold prices listed on the US Comex show that gold import demand will no longer be a factor supporting the market as before.
In the opposite direction, Deutsche Bank believes that the gold buying demand of central banks is still the biggest bright spot and this trend is likely to continue for a long time.
